The three-game Saturday slate concludes with the Dolphins and Raiders in my favorite place to visit, Las Vegas. You didn’t need to know that but I told you anyway. Let’s take a look at this Showdown slate.
Set your DraftKings lineups here: NFL $500K Saturday Night Showdown [$100K to 1st]
Notable Injuries
Miami Dolphins: Questionable: WR DeVante Parker (hamstring), TE Mike Gesicki (shoulder), WR Jakeem Grant (hamstring)
Las Vegas Raiders: None
SHOWDOWN STRATEGY
Captain’s Picks
Tua Tagovailoa ($15,600 CP) — Tagovailoa isn’t even the most expensive captain on this slate, as that belongs to Darren Waller ($15,900 CP). While the matchup for Waller is a tough one, Tagovailoa has quite a favorable one to deal with. The Raiders have been extremely generous to opposing quarterbacks, allowing an average of 22 DKFP, 265 passing yards and 24 touchdowns thrown. The Raiders offer a very minimal pass rush, which is a big benefit to Tagovailoa. When he’s working with a clean pocket, he’s boasted an 80.1% adjusted completion percentage, 7.1 yards per pass attempt and all nine of his touchdowns. For comparison, when under pressure, his adjusted completion percentage drops to 57.4% and only 4.6 YPA. With the rushing upside a factor as well, he’s by far my favorite captain.
Josh Jacobs ($14,700 CP) — The matchup isn’t great for Jacobs, as the Dolphins’ run defense has been strong. With that said, the sheer volume of touches Jacobs receives puts him into the captain conversation. Last week against the Chargers, another tough matchup, Jacobs handled a massive 47.5% of the touches. Overall, he’s averaging 40%, so using him in the captain spot, even in tough matchups, is purely a volume play. The Dolphins have allowed opposing backs to find some success through the air, as the 6.8 yards per target is amongst the highest in the league while giving up an average of 38.4 receiving yards.
Other to consider: Myles Gaskin ($12,600)
Value Plays
Hunter Renfrow ($4,000) — Renfrow was forced from last week’s game against the Chargers with a concussion, giving him just 1.4 DKFP. Recency bias will keep people off of him but this is low-key a sneaky spot for him. The Dolphins have a strong secondary but have struggled against slot receivers. Spending 55% of his snaps in the slot, Renfrow will match up against CB Nik Needham, who has been targeted against 60 times, allowing 41 receptions (68.3% catch rate) and 12.5 YPR. Renfrow isn’t a flash name by any means but if Waller is struggling to catch the ball, Carr will be forced to find others to target.
Lynn Bowden Jr. ($4,600) — With both Parker and Gesicki potentially missing this game, we could see another large role for Bowden. With Parker out the past two weeks, Bowden played on 71.1% and 90.4% of the total offensive snaps, drawing 16 targets and making 13 receptions for 119 yards. This would be the best matchup to date with him on the field as much as he’s been, with the Raiders really struggling with their secondary. For someone to average 23.8% of the total targets over the past two weeks, Bowden would be a steal if Parker were sidelined. The cherry on top has been how good Bowden has been after the catch in the past two games, accounting for 49% of his receiving yards.
Fade
Derek Carr ($10,000) — I’m not crazy about Carr in this game against what is a good Dolphins defense. The lack of running from Carr is the biggest factor here, especially when Tua is only $400 more. Before getting hurt last week, he was cruising against the Colts and Jets, scoring 28 and 35 DKFP with five touchdowns thrown and at least 316 passing yards. I would be surprised if he was able to reach that level in this game. I would much rather fade Carr and pay up for others like Tua and Waller. The Dolphins will also bring a decent pass rush against Carr who has been under pressure on 30% of his dropbacks and sacked 20 times while throwing only three of his 24 touchdowns and four interceptions.
Set your DraftKings lineups here: NFL $500K Saturday Night Showdown [$100K to 1st]
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