Hi. Week 16 is here and it takes place after Christmas. Hope yours was great. So read it and then follow me on Twitter @SBuchanan24.
Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs vs. Atlanta Falcons $8,500 — Look, Mahomes is in play almost every single week. You’re not coming here wondering if that’s the case. However, he truly is in such an amazing matchup in Week 16 against one of the worst secondaries in the league. I shudder to think what Mahomes can do in this matchup and if you can afford to pay for him, you should. As -10.5 favorites on the DK Sportsbook, we expect a monster offensive day from the Chiefs. Even BEFORE the Falcons have faced this team, they are allowing a league-leading 26 DKFP, 302 passing yards and 28 touchdowns thrown by opposing QBs. Even in a game last week where Mahomes completed only 55% of his pass attempts, he still scored 26.86 DKFP with three touchdowns thrown. The Falcons will throw a good pass rush against him, but in that scenario, Mahomes still boasts a 66.2% adjusted completion percentage while averaging 7.4 yards per attempt.
Other Option – Jalen Hurts ($7,000)
Jared Goff, Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks $5,900 — The Rams killed everyone last week with their stupid loss to the Jets, so most likely, people aren’t looking toward him this week. Honestly, this is SUCH a good week to get back on him. HE’S FACING THE SEAHAWKS!!!!!! When do we NOT target teams against the Seahawks!? Heck, even Dwayne Haskins ($5,200) posted 16.6 DKFP against them.
The Seahawks present no pass rush for Goff to combat and with a clean pocket, he has 16 of his 20 touchdowns thrown, an 84.2% adjusted completion percentage and 8.4 YPA. This sets up extremely well for all of the Rams’ receivers and, thus, we should see a much more efficient Goff. He’s simply way too cheap for this matchup and a very fine pay down option should you choose to do so.
Other Option – Philip Rivers ($5,600)
David Montgomery, Chicago Bears vs. Jacksonville Jaguars, $7,700 – This end of the year schedule that Montgomery has been gifted is borderline insane. He’s getting amazing matchup after amazing matchup each and every week. The best part of it all? He’s responding.
Dating back to Week 12, Montgomery is averaging a massive 28.7 DKFP. In that span, he’s carried the ball 71 times for 434 yards, which shakes out to 6.1 (!) YPC! If we take that four-game sample and look at the rest of the league, Montgomery is fourth in YPC (6.1), second in yards after contact (293) and third in yards after contact per attempt (4.13). Now he faces a Jaguars run defense that hasn’t allowed less than 106 rushing yards in a game in five straight. With the way Montgomery is getting fed, averaging 40% of the touches over the past four games, this is not even something to think about.
Other Options – Austin Ekeler ($7,600), J.K. Dobbins ($6,200)
Gus Edwards, Baltimore Ravens vs. New York Giants, $4,400 – I’m not crazy about cheap running backs this week. Le’Veon Bell ($5,800) is a great option but I’m not pairing him with Mahomes. Darrell Henderson Jr ($4,500) and Malcolm Brown ($4,000) are cheap options but I’m not thrilled with that idea either. After these guys, the pickings get quite thin but I think Edwards is still a viable option despite playing second fiddle to Dobbins.
Despite Dobbins holding down the RB1 duties, Edwards is still handling 17.4% of the touches while Dobbins is at 19.2%. Edwards is also seeing some carries in the red zone, which gives him a legitimate chance to score in a game where the Ravens are favored by -10.5. While Edwards is only averaging 18.7% of the red zone carries overall, he’s at 26.1% over the past four weeks. It’s a play not a ton of people want to make but I believe he’s still very much in play.
Other Options – Le’Veon Bell ($5,800), Gio Bernard ($4,800)
Tyreek Hill, Kansas City Chiefs vs. Atlanta Falcons $9,000 — Paring Hill and Mahomes together this week is going to be tough, but if you can do it, yes, you should do it. In coverage, Hill should be lining up against CB Isaiah Oliver, who has specifically been one of my favorite corners to target against. Oliver has been targeted against 83 times, allowing 63 receptions (76% catch rate) for an average of 12.2 YPR and six touchdowns scored against. Amongst qualified corners, Oliver has allowed the second-most receptions, trailing only teammate CB A.J. Terrell, who’ll be on Sammy Watkins ($5,000). Oliver has also allowed the most yards after catch at 370, which is not a stat you want to lead in against a guy like Hill. Hill is 11th in the league with 373 yards after catch and averages 4.5 per reception.
Other Options – Robert Woods ($7,000), Calvin Ridley ($8,500)
Tee Higgins, Cincinnati Bengals at Houston Texans, $4,700 – The Bengals will be short-handed at receiver this week, as Tyler Boyd has been ruled out due to a concussion. This should elevate Higgins to the WR1 role this week and it’s the perfect time to have that designation. Higgins has been averaging 7.4 targets over the past five weeks but only 9.5 DKFP. Luckily for him, this is his best matchup on paper against a Texans secondary that’s allowing over 166 receiving yards to opposing wideouts. In coverage, Higgins should draw CB Keion Crossen, who has taken a larger role since Bradley Roby was suspended. In all, Crossen has been targeted against nine times allowing seven receptions for an average of 9.1 YPR.
Other Options – Jamison Crowder ($4,500), Tyron Johnson ($4,000)
Logan Thomas, Washington Football Team vs. Carolina Panthers, $4,900 – If you’re REALLY dying to pay up at tight end, of course, Travis Kelce ($8,500) is the man to suit your needs. With that said, I’ll happily take Thomas at nearly half the cost in a stellar matchup and a depleted Football Team offense. Terry McLaurin is doubtful to play and Antonio Gibson is questionable. This could lead to yet another monster target game for Thomas, who drew 15 last week, hauling in 13 receptions for 101 yards and 26.1 DKFP. Now he faces a Panthers team allowing an average of 14.4 DKFP, 56.3 receiving yards and seven touchdowns scored. This is such an easy lock for me.
Other Options – Noah Fant ($4,800)
Donald Parham Jr, Los Angeles Chargers vs. Denver Broncos, $2,500 – The potential punt play at tight end if you want to go down to basement pricing is Parham. If Hunter Henry ($4,700) is not removed from the COVID-19 list, Parham would draw the start. He hasn’t done much to warrant much attention but he has run a route on 88% of his snaps. Of those, he’s only drawing 13 targets on the 65 routes. Now, this number should easily improve if Henry is out, so it’s news worth watching. At 6’8”, he would be a very attractive target in the red zone (hint, hint, wink wink, Justin Herbert).
Other Options – Tyler Eifert ($3,000)
Chicago Bears D/ST vs. Jacksonville Jaguars $3,600 – As I write this Friday night, we still don’t have word on who the starting quarterback for the Jags will be. I honestly don’t need to know as it doesn’t make much of a difference for me. The Bears’ D/ST is very much in play for me with one of the top pass rushes in the league. No matter who is under center, the Jags’ offensive line has allowed them to be under pressure on 33% of their dropbacks, resulting in 36 total sacks and an adjusted completion percentage of just 52.3%.
Other Option – Cleveland Browns ($3,700)
Denver Broncos D/ST at Los Angeles Chargers, $2,300 – If you want to go cheap, I don’t hate using the Broncos. They have a solid pass rush of their own and we’ve seen Justin Herbert ($7,400) struggle when under pressure. The rookie has been under pressure on 35% of his dropbacks, resulting in 26 sacks. He’s still good at getting pass attempts to his receivers but the Broncos are a team that can rack up sacks as well with six games of at least three sacks.
Other Option – Philadelphia Eagles ($2,900)
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