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DraftKings Fantasy Football DFS Trends and Early NFL Predictions for Week 16

Steve Buchanan analyzes three fantasy football player performances from Week 15 and gives his take on if it’ll continue or not in Week 16.

There is nothing better than some overreactions after the dust settles on a football Sunday. All of us armchair quarterbacks go and make our critiques and tell all our friends and family about what we would have done differently.

The great thing for me is, they asked me to do this and YOU’RE sitting here reading it! How about that?

For this piece, each week we’ll take a look at some players that either potentially overachieved or underachieved and what the outlook for them is moving forward — specifically for next week’s game. Are they set up for more success or could someone have simply had a bad week? My job here is to try and figure that out and relay that information to you. Let’s take a look!

Oh, feel free to tell me how wrong I am by getting at me on Twitter @SBuchanan24.

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Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles
Week 15 Fantasy Total: 40.82 DKFP

We all were waiting in anticipation on Monday afternoon as Eagles coach Doug Pederson said he would announce the starting quarterback for this game. After a sleepless night, I was relieved to see that he landed on Hurts, who thew for 338 yards and three touchdowns, ran for 63 yards and a touchdown and outscored everyone in Week 15.

Hurts is now set up for his best matchup yet against a poor Cowboys defense that has been picked apart through the air all season long. After giving up 319 passing yards to the 49ers last week (lol, wut?) they look primed to be picked apart, as many quarterbacks have done already. This is also a defense you can run on, as we’ve seen Kyler Murray and Lamar Jackson go for a combined 168 yards on 23 attempts.

Hurts hasn’t been overly accurate thus far, completing just 41/74 pass attempts. As was the issue with Carson Wentz, Hurts is under pressure a lot, being pressured on 36% of his dropbacks thus far. It’s led Hurts to averaging just 4.0 yards per pass attempt, a 50% adjusted completion percentage and taking nine sacks. While these aren’t great numbers, he’s been so good on the ground that the runs are making up for his lack of accuracy. While he will feel pressure in this game, Hurts’ ability to run and escape pressure is huge and will lead to good fantasy days ahead, especially in Week 16.

DJ Moore, Carolina Panthers
Week 15 Fantasy Total: 22.2 DKFP

After a bye and missing Week 14, Moore was in the lineup for the Panthers in Week 15 and his return came with a vengeance against the Packers. Targeted eight times, Moore made six catches for 131 yards and 22.2 DKFP. He quickly stepped back into his normal role, accounting for a 23.5% target share, second-best on the team.

Week 16 brings a very tough matchup against the Washington Football Team and a secondary that I feel doesn’t get the love they should. Moore plays on both sides of the field but primarily sees the left side, doing so on 44% of his snaps. That would put him up against CB Kendall Fuller, who is coming off a solid game against the Seahawks. Overall, Fuller has been targeted against 59 times allowing 33 receptions (56% catch-rate) for an average of 12.8 YPR.

If there is something positive to point toward Moore this week, he is one of the best deep threats in the game in 2020. Among all receivers, his 61.1% catch-rate on 18 passes of 20+ yards is currently the best in the league, slightly above Vikings WR Justin Jefferson. Moore has made 11 catches and averaged 38 YPR.

Cooper Kupp, Los Angeles Rams
Week 15 Fantasy Total: 8.9 DKFP

To be fair, anything to do with the Rams in Week 15 was a disaster, so I don’t want to single out Kupp specifically. Give the Jets credit, they fired up the film and thought “ya know, if we just pressure Jared Goff, we can turn him into a puddle.” The Jets, who usually aren’t a great pass rushing team, had him under pressure on 21% of his dropbacks, resulting in a 33.3% adjusted completion percentage and 1.2 yards per pass attempt. Amusingly, the Rams did make a legitimate threat to win this game at the end but it didn’t happen. Whatever.

Now for the good news! The bad performance by Kupp saw him drop $400 in salary for a matchup against...wait for itttttt.......THE SEAHAWKS!

Guys, this is literally the best news we’ve gotten this month. The Seahawks have one of the worst pass rushes (hooray, Goff!), have NO secondary (hooray Kupp!) and are just a great team to target against in daily fantasy (hooray, us!). CB Ugo Amadi has been slipping as of late despite allowing an average of just 8.8 YPR on the season. Over the past two weeks he’s allowed eight receptions on 11 targets for a total of 101 yards. Kupp has quite the height advantage on him as well at 6’2” compared to the 5’9” of Amadi. All in all, this is a great bounce-back spot for the Rams.

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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is steveazors) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.

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