The Denver Broncos (5-8) are home underdogs (+5.5) on DraftKings Sportsbook to the surging Buffalo Bills (10-3), who just dispatched the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 14 and have won three straight coming out of their bye week. Bow wow wow yipee yo yipee yah! The Broncos also have a Lloyd Christmas chance of making the playoffs if they win out and get lots of help. LOTS.
Ironically, the Broncos don’t look to have the horses to circle the wagons and spoil the Bills’ bandwagon, but that doesn’t mean fantasy goodies can’t be mined. Let’s dig in from a Showdown perspective and find out.
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Buffalo Bills vs. Denver Broncos
SHOWDOWN STRATEGY
Captain’s Picks
Josh Allen ($18,600 CP) - The price tag is a tough pill to swallow. Don’t worry, I’ll give a cheaper option below, but the Bills pass 60.31% of the time, which is 13th in the league, and the Broncos are down five cornerbacks (AJ Bouye, Bryce Callahan, Duke Dawson, Essang Basey, and Kevin Toliver). So we are looking at Nate Hairston, Michael Ojemudia, and De’Vante Bausby manning the secondary. Who? Exactly. Hairston has played in one game and allowed four receptions on four targets for 62 yards. Ojemudia has played 11 games and allowed four touchdowns with a 117.6 passer rating against. Bausby has appeared in four games and allowed 11 receptions on 19 targets for 105 yards and a touchdown. Why not go with Stefon Diggs ($17,100 CP) or Cole Beasley ($13,800 CP) instead? The rushing and touchdown equity on the ground is too much to ignore for Allen. He’s second on the team with 93 rushes, 42 behind Devin Singletary ($7,500 CP), and has 22 rushes in the red zone, good for 27th in the NFL.
Noah Fant ($8,400 CP) - See, I told you I’d hook you up with a cheaper option than Allen. There’s an obvious risk here, especially since Fant bageled last week, but that’s why he’s cheap. If we think that the Bills are going to score points, the implied total of 27.75 indicates that being a good possibility, then the Broncos will be motivated to attack through the air. The Bills have good cornerbacks in Tre’Davious White, Levi Wallace, and Taron Johnson. In addition, their scheme limits downfield passing (allowing the fewest aDOT yards at 6.9), which is where Drew Lock ($15,000 CP) wants to attack. So, the middle is the soft spot. On the season, the Bills defense has allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to the tight end position.
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FLEX Plays
Gabriel Davis ($6,200) - John Brown has missed the last three games. During that span, Davis has played 97%, 97%, and 83% of the snaps and received 4, 4, and 8 targets. With an aDOT of 14.1, Davis is the deep threat, which makes him more boom-or-bust than Diggs or Beasley, but he’s led the Bills’ receiving group in red-zone looks with five over the past three games. Brown is not expected to play against the Broncos.
Bills DST ($4,600) - There’s a good probability that the Bills put up points, forcing the Broncos to open up the offense and let Lock cook. The Bills are middle-of-the-pack in sacks with 31 and a 21.7% pressure rate, but they did register six sacks against the Jets in Week 7 and five sacks against the Seahawks in Week 9. The sacks are not the thing we are hunting here, though. It’s the chance for interceptions. The Bills are 10th in the league with 12 interceptions, have talented cornerbacks, and Lock has thrown 13 interceptions in 10 games.
Fades
Melvin Gordon ($8,400) - Gordon is banged up with a shoulder injury, so while he’s expected to play, there’s always the risk of reaggravation. Gordon does dominate the red-zone usage with 24 on the season, while Phillip Lindsay ($2,400) only has four, but the target distribution has evened out lately (5 to 3 over the past three games), and Lindsay out-snapped Gordon for the first time last week (29 to 28). To make matters worse, the Bills’ rushing defense has held Austin Ekeler to 14 for 44 yards, the 49ers’ backfield to 89 yards, and James Conner to 10 for 18 yards since coming off their bye week.
Tim Patrick ($7,600) - Patrick is the highest-priced Broncos receiver and has the second-highest aDOT on the team. As mentioned in the Bills’ DST blurb above, the Bills are excellent at limiting deep plays. From a matchup perspective, Patrick runs 34% of the routes from the left side of the formation and 45% from the right. That would match him up against Tre’Davious White on the left and Levi Wallace on the right. White has allowed a 64% catch rate and nabbed three interceptions. Wallace has given up a 58% catch rate, grabbed two interceptions, and opposing quarterbacks have an 84.4 passer rating against.
THE OUTCOME
I love home dogs (woof woof woof), but the Broncos just don’t have the horses to match up. The Bills are 5-0 ATS in the last five games and 12-4 SU as a road favorite between 3.5 to 7 points. If the Broncos were healthy on the defensive side, I’d lean taking the points, as they are 8th in pass defense DVOA, but alas, they are not.
Final Score: Buffalo 28, Denver 17
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