Sunday Night Football might welcome in its best matchup this week with the Steelers coming off their first loss of the season and visiting the exciting Buffalo Bills. With some sides, totals and props being offered, here’s what jumps out to me on DraftKings Sportsbook for this game.
The NFL has been all about overreactions over the past few weeks. The 49ers are good because they beat the Rams. The Cardinals won’t make the playoffs because they lost two games. The latest? The Bills are a juggernaut because they beat down the aforementioned injured, middling 49ers. This is simply not true. Josh Allen and Buffalo looked stellar on primetime in Week 13, but one game is far from a large enough sample size to anoint them the second-best team in the AFC. That’s the title I believe is at stake in this matchup, in which the wrong team is favored. Despite last week’s loss, Pittsburgh’s defense remains perhaps the strongest in the league. It was the offense that struggled against one of the best pass defenses in the league in Washington. Buffalo’s defense has underperformed all season long, and while Allen’s overall body of work has been good, he’s been inconsistent this season. Good defenses and schemes can stop Allen, and that’s what he’ll be up against on Sunday. This is a steal.
Pittsburgh has the second-best record in the league when it comes to covering the under at 6-4-2, while Buffalo has been an over machine at 8-3-1. Most of those overs have come against good defense, too — the Rams, Dolphins, Titans, Niners and Patriots are all on that list. It actually turns out that whenever the Bills play a poor defense, the game fails to go over. I expect plenty of offensive efficiency here, and plenty of passing considering how much Ben Roethlisberger has been throwing the ball over the past two weeks and the ineffectiveness of the Bills rushing attack. This game should be fun to watch.
I am looking for ways to invest in this Pittsburgh passing attack against a Bills defense that’s allowed the fifth-most yards through the air in football over the past three weeks, and this seems like a fantastic way to do it. Washington has proven to be a reliable receiver for Ben Roethlisberger, who has looked his way on countless third-downs or for home run plays. He enters the game with over three targets per game over the past three weeks, and has eight multi-reception games this season. It feels like a safe bet that he’ll be involved tonight after going for 80 yards and a touchdown last week, and against a soft matchup I love him. Roethlisberger has thrown over 50 times the past two games and there’s no reason to believe even with James Conner back that Pittsburgh won’t exploit this mismatch.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is jetsfan196) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
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