Welcome to the weekly tournament plays article for Sunday’s main DraftKings fantasy football slate. I’m going to be focusing purely on high-upside plays and stacks that are likely to be lower-owned in the largest tournaments on the slate. There will be a lot of bust potential found here most weeks too, but big GPPs are generally not won by making the popular moves.
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Kirk Cousins ($6,200) – Justin Jefferson ($7,400) – Chris Godwin ($6,300)
The Buccaneers’ defense has regressed late in the season and has become a great target for opposing passers. The Bucs have now allowed multiple passing TDs in six straight games and have allowed an average of 419 passing yards now over their last two starts. The Vikings have been playing quicker and passing more on offense of late too, as Kirk Cousins comes into this game having averaged 309 yards passing over the last three weeks while also attempting an average of 44 pass attempts in the Vikings’ last two starts. Despite the great play, his salary actually came down $200 over last week (where he scored over 26 DKFP for the third week in a row) and he makes for a solid fit here with WR Justin Jefferson. Jefferson’s price increase ($500 over last week) is set off a bit by Kirk’s relative cheapness and the break of $7K here on the rookie should also help keep his ownership to smaller levels.
Jefferson has been nothing short of a revelation in Minnesota and he comes in having averaged 12.5 targets over his last two games while ranking fourth in the league in yards per catch and third in fantasy points per route run. His matchup here with CB Sean Murphy-Bunting, who is allowing an 81% catch-rate (the sixth worst in the league) spells doom for Tampa and potential ecstasy for his fantasy owners. On the flip side, Chris Godwin is a similarly talented WR who is in just as good a spot here against a Vikings secondary who has given up the fourth-most DKFP to opposing WRs. One of Tampa’s big three WRs should have a big game and Godwin comes in having averaged 9.5 targets over his last two starts. The better connection he’s shown with Tom Brady ($6,900) of late (15 catches on last 19 targets) should shine through against such a weak secondary. Regardless of the exact names you choose to go with, with the O/U set at 51.5 on DraftKings Sportsbook and two weak secondaries to attack, the passing games here should be very fruitful for Week 14 DraftKings lineups.
Just Missed: Justin Herbert ($6,800) – Keenan Allen ($7,700) – Calvin Ridley ($7,500)
Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers vs. Atlanta Falcons ($6,800)
The Chargers are coming off one of the most embarrassing losses in franchise history as they were hammered 45-0 by the Patriots last week. Lost in the Chargers’ terrible season though has been the emergence of Justin Herbert. Herbert’s thrown for 300+ yards in six of 11 starts this year and should be eager here for a bounce back to retain his lock on the Offensive Rookie of the Year award. The Falcons are a perfect get-right matchup for the strong-armed QB as opposing QBs have averaged a 102.9 passer rating against their defense this year.
The Chargers have given up the 13th-most sacks per game this year but their O-Line is up against one of the tamer pass-rushes in the league here as Atlanta enters just 18th in sacks per game on defense. The neutral line matchup should bode well for Herbert who has averaged 314 yards in six home starts this year. Overall, QBs have also hit the 300+ bonus eight times now through 13 games against Atlanta, who has also given up the second-most passing yards this season. It all speaks to expect good things this week from Herbert, who should be lower-owned than he normally would be in this spot given how bad the Chargers were last week.
Just Missed: Jalen Hurts ($5,100)
Aaron Jones, Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions ($7,600)
Jones saved fantasy owners last week with a late 77-yard TD that propelled him over 26 DKFP. The pundits may say that we should be wary here given how close he was to busting last week—and the fact that the game against Philly was his first time cracking 20 DKFP in six starts—but Jones has always been a player to rely on big-plays and TDs over volume. He’s now taken 18 touches in each of his last two games though and that number could rise this week if he gets off to a hot start. The chances of that happening against Detroit seem pretty solid too as the Lions have ceded the most fantasy points against to opposing RBs this year and allowed the most TDs to the position overall, including seven through the air. Names like Antonio Gibson, Latavius Murray ($5,400) and David Montgomery ($6,500) have all plundered this team for multiple TD games in 2020 and Jones had one of the best games of the season against Detroit in Week 2 when he hit 48.6 DKFP. Maybe he doesn’t crack 40 points again, but another ceiling type game here seems likely.
Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts at Las Vegas Raiders ($5,800)
Taylor was featured here last week and put together a strong game, posting 135 total yards on just 16 touches. The rookie looked better than he has all season against Houston, averaging seven yards per carry while also taking a long reception in for a TD—his first receiving TD of the season. The muted workload is still a concern and I admit things weren’t looking great for Taylor early on last week, but the fact they turned to him to ice the game away late is a great sign more work is coming. The Raiders’ defense has turned to dust the last three weeks, as they’ve allowed five TDs on the ground to opposing RBs over the last three games and have a 4.5 YPC against, the 10th-worst mark in the league. Taylor may get a little more love this week in DFS circles but he’s still unlikely to get overly chalky given the workload concerns. He continues to make for a great GPP target in these softer matchups.
Just Missed: D’Andre Swift ($6,500)
Terry McLaurin, Washington Football Team at San Francisco 49ers ($6,700)
McLaurin was covered well by Pittsburgh last week, who seemed determined to make someone other than Scary Terry beat them—congrats to Logan Thomas ($3,300). McLaurin gets a much different, much improved matchup in Week 14 though against a San Francisco secondary who has simply been torched all different kinds of ways this year. The 49ers have now allowed the fourth most TDs and DKFP on the season to opposing WRs and been almost comically bad against teams with dominant WR1s. Stefon Diggs (10 catches), Davante Adams (12 catches) and DK Metcalf (12 catches) have all went bananas against this team in separate outings since Week 8 and this week definitely feels like it’s McLaurin’s turn to hit the high score. While he’s bound to get some heat later in the week, a couple slow games and no TDs in four straight games means his ownership should stay somewhat low in GPPs as well.
Jalen Reagor, Philadelphia Eagles vs. New Orleans Saints ($4,400)
The Eagles have been getting healthy at WR (not that it’s mattered) and it meant Reagor saw just one target in his last game. It was a significant target though as it came from this week’s starting QB—Jalen Hurts ($5,100)—and went for a 34-yard completion. Reagor also provided a spark on special teams when he went for a punt-return TD and you have to think that the Eagles, as a whole, will be more committed to letting their two first and second round draft picks from 2020 carry them more the rest of the way. The matchup is undoubtedly tough here, and the workload is up in the air, but it’s worth noting that Alshon Jeffery ($3,000) is banged up and looks questionable, so Reagor could see an expanded roll out of necessity too. Reagor is the pretty much textbook definition of a GPP play this week but with a cheap salary attached, injury concerns to his teammates, and a new QB, this could be the week he finally breaks out for fantasy.
Just Missed: Deebo Samuel ($6,400)
Hunter Henry, Los Angeles Chargers vs. Atlanta Falcons ($4,400)
Henry enters this game with targeting that most tight ends would kill to have. The Chargers’ main pass-catching TE has now seen 78 targets on the season (fourth-best among all TEs) and has only seen less than seven targets in a game four times in 12 games. As mentioned above, I love the matchup against Atlanta as a bounce-back for Chargers QB Justin Herbert ($6,800) and Henry should be one of the biggest beneficiaries here if that prediction comes to fruition. Atlanta has allowed the second-most TDs to the TE position this year on defense and their defense has been particularly giving on the road, ceding 304 yards passing per game in all their road starts combined. Most DFS’ers seem likely to go super cheap or pay up at TE for an elite name like Travis Kelce ($7,400) or Darren Waller ($6,800) this week—who both have less than ideal matchups. Henry provides a great soft spot for those who want something in between though as he provides a far better floor than most cheap options but is also in a spot where he could produce his best game of the year against the Falcons’ fantasy friendly defense.
Just Missed: Noah Fant ($4,100)
Philadelphia Eagles ($2,200) vs. New Orleans Saints
The Eagles’ DST caught my eye here as a potentially great, cheap DST play this week. The change at QB to Jalen Hurts ($5,100) can likely only provide a spark to a team who has been buried under the poor decision making and turnovers pouring out of Carson Wentz this year. Their defense hasn’t been all that bad in spots though—even while playing behind a putrid offense—and they actually come in ranked second in the league in sacks per game. One thing that Saints QB Taysom Hill ($6,600) has shown a propensity for in his short time in the NFL is fumbling and he comes in having lost a fumble now in three of his last four games (one wasn’t even as a starter). Philly has also averaged 7.0 DKFP at home and they sit seventh in the league in fumble turnovers. Hurts turning the ball over less (presumably) should take some pressure off this unit and with their season and pride on the line here, this feels like a great spot to take a shot on them in GPPs, where their salary allows you tons of flexibility elsewhere.
Just missed: Washington Football Team ($2,800)
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is wavegoodbye) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
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