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NFL Picks: Week 12 DraftKings Sportsbook Pro Football Spreads Pool Predictions

Matt LaMarca breaks down his picks in the DraftKings Sportsbook Pro Football Spreads Pool for Week 12 of the NFL season.

If you’re looking to combine sports betting and DFS, DraftKings Sportsbook Pools might be for you. It combines your knowledge of sports betting with the upside of a DFS-style prize pool. Pick the winner for each of 12 NFL games on Sunday against the spread and the higher you finish on the leaderboard, the more money you earn. Check out the contest at the DraftKings Sportsbook Pools page or by downloading the DraftKings Sportsbook app.

Let’s take a look at all 12 NFL contests slated for Sunday’s DraftKings Sportsbook Pro Football Week 12 Spreads Pool, including my five personal favorites.

Cleveland Browns (-6.5) @ Jacksonville Jaguars

The Pick: Jaguars +6.5

The Browns are one of the most fraudulent 7-3 teams in recent memory. They own a Pythagorean win expectation of just 4.5-5.5, and they rank just 22nd in Football Outsiders’ overall DVOA. They’ve benefitted from a cupcake schedule and some poor weather in recent weeks, which benefits them because they’re such a run-heavy squad.

They have another soft matchup this week vs. the Jaguars, but I think this line is simply too high. The Jaguars were embarrassed last week by the Steelers, but they boast one of the best pass rushes in the league. Jake Luton wasn’t able to handle that pressure and their defense couldn’t hold up against Ben Roethlisberger.

The Jags have decided to bench Luton in favor of Mike Glennon this week, and that decision should help Jacksonville’s offense. Glennon certainly isn’t a world-beater, but he’s a clear upgrade over Luton. He’ll also face a much easier matchup vs. Cleveland. The Browns have been mediocre in terms of their pass rush this season and they’ll be without Myles Garrett in this contest. His 9.5 sacks are tied for the most in the league, so that is a huge absence.

I’d prefer getting the Jaguars at +7.0 – which is what they’re listed on at DraftKings Sportsbook – but I like them at +6.5 as well. Glennon should be able to do enough to keep this game competitive.

Tennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts (-4.5)

The Pick: Titans +4.5

This game has moved has seen some line movement to start the week. The Titans are down to just three-point underdogs, so we’re grabbing a little bit of spread value with them in this Sportsbook Pool.

The big reason for the line movement is the injuries that the Colts are dealing with currently. Ryan Kelly and Quentin Nelson are both listed as questionable for this contest, and the status of those two players will be massive. The Titans don’t have an imposing pass rush, but the Colts’ offense is built around their strong offensive line.

Additionally, Phillip Rivers is listed as questionable after limping to the finish line last week vs. the Packers. He was clearly hobbled in that contest, but Rivers is as tough as they come at the QB position. I fully expect him to be in the lineup, but he’s likely going to be even less mobile than usual. That makes playing behind a shorthanded offensive line even scarier than it typically is.

New York Giants (-5.5) @ Cincinnati Bengals

The Pick: Giants -5.5

The Giants definitely aren’t a good football team, but they’re probably better than you think. They’ve won three of their past five games, and their two losses over that time frame have come by just three total points. One of those losses was also against the Buccaneers, who remain one of the best teams in the NFC.

This is a different dynamic for the Giants, who are significant road favorites against a shorthanded Bengals’ squad. The Giants have been favored in just one previous contest this season and they were unable to cover in that situation.

Still, it’s hard not to like them this week. Not only is Joe Mixon going to miss another contest after being placed on IR, but Joe Burrow is going to miss a significant period of time after tearing his ACL and MCL.

Without Burrow, it’s hard to envision the Bengals being very competitive. Their offensive line has not been good this season, ranking just 24th in adjusted sack rate, and now Brandon Allen will be playing behind that unit. Allen has appeared in three games throughout his career and the results were not impressive. He completed just 46.4% of his passes, resulting in an adjusted yards per attempt of 5.8. He also tossed two interceptions compared to just three touchdowns.

The Giants’ defense is certainly not a juggernaut, but they should be able to shut down such a mediocre player. I have no doubts that the Giants will put up points in this matchup — Cincy ranks 30th in defensive DVOA — so they should ultimately be able to cover the spread.

Las Vegas Raiders (-2.5) @ Atlanta Falcons

The Pick: Raiders -2.5

The Raiders are coming off a loss last week vs. the Chiefs, but they were impressive in that outing. They actually led by three points with approximately 1:30 left in the fourth quarter, but they were ultimately unable to keep Patrick Mahomes from scoring the game-winning touchdown.

The sharps clearly took notice of that performance because the Raiders have been one of the highest-bet teams of the week from a dollar perspective. That has caused them to move to three-point favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook, but we can still grab them at -2.5 in this Sportsbook Pool.

The status of Julio Jones will be worth monitoring. The Falcons’ offense has plummeted with Jones out or limited this season, averaging just 16.75 points in four contests. With Jones at full strength, the Falcons have averaged 30.8 points per game in six contests.

Jones has been limited at practice this week, but it sounds like he’s going to be a true game-time decision on Sunday. If he’s out, the Raiders are one of my favorite plays of the week. I still like the Raiders if Julio is active because there’s no guarantee he’ll be at full strength, but my confidence level would decrease slightly.

Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Pick: Buccaneers +3.5

This is undoubtedly the best game of the week and it’s also fascinating from a betting perspective. These are two of the best teams in the league, but it would probably surprise you that the Bucs are actually the better squad in terms of DVOA. Tampa Bay currently ranks second in that department thanks to a dominant defense, while the Chiefs rank fourth.

Betting against Mahomes and the Chiefs is obviously scary, but I do think it’s the correct decision in this matchup. The Chiefs haven’t exactly dominated recently and their offense may not be able to bail them out late vs. the Buccaneers.

Tom Brady also fits a ton of profitable trends in this matchup. He’s coming off a loss in his last contest, and Brady has posted a record of 39-14 against the spread in that situation since 2003. That’s good for a ridiculous 73.6% cover rate and includes a 3-0 mark following a loss in his first year with the Bucs.

Backing Brady as an underdog has also historically been insanely profitable. He’s gone 22-9-2 in that situation, which is good for a 37.2% ROI. He’s only been a home underdog four times since 2003 — which is crazy in its own right — but Brady has gone 3-1 in those contests.

Remaining Games

Here are the teams I’m targeting for the rest of the Sunday games. Remember, we’re looking to beat the competition and climb up the leaderboard, so I’ll be looking to gain leverage on the field and fade the public in situations where I don’t see a huge edge on the spread.

Los Angeles Chargers @ Buffalo Bills (-5.5)

Pick: Chargers +5.5

Miami Dolphins (-6.5) @ New York Jets

Pick: Dolphins -6.5

Carolina Panthers @ Minnesota Vikings (-3.5)

Pick: Panthers +3.5

Arizona Cardinals (-2.5) @ New England Patriots

Pick: Patriots +2.5

San Francisco 49ers @ Los Angeles Rams (-7.5)

Pick: 49ers +7.5

New Orleans Saints (-5.5) @ Denver Broncos

Pick: Saints -5.5

Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers (-8.5)

Pick: Bears +8.5

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