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NFL MNF Best Bets: Football Predictions, Odds to Consider on DraftKings Sportsbook for Patriots vs. Chiefs and Falcons vs. Packers

Julian Edlow gives his best NFL bets to consider on DraftKings Sportsbook for Monday Night Football between the Patriots and Chiefs, as well as the Falcons and Packers.

NFL: Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers Michael McLoone-USA TODAY Sports

Welp, we got thrown a curveball this week, in what should be a season full of them. Following Cam Newton’s positive COVID-19 test, the Patriots and Chiefs obviously had to postpone their game. But both teams have tested negative multiple times since Newton’s positive test was revealed, so these teams will somehow be able to squeeze in an unplanned MNF game. Then we also have tonight’s scheduled game, with the Falcons taking on the Packers.

Here’s what jumps out on DraftKings Sportsbook.

DraftKings users can get in on the action by betting on DraftKings Sportsbook or by downloading the DK Sportsbook app.

New England Patriots at Kansas City Chiefs

Touchdown Scorer: Damien Harris (+550)

This is a weird game from a betting standpoint. We’re going to see a completely different Patriots’ team with Brian Hoyer at QB, and we have no idea where their heads will be at after the past few days. I could see the Chiefs rolling here, but would like to play them at 10 or less. The only edge I can see on the New England side is the revolving door developing at RB. More on that below, but for now, here’s a potential nice payout on a prop — as long as a few things go our way. Sony Michel will be inactive for this game, which could mean the transition to Harris as the featured RB, following an impressive camp. James White is expected to return as well but serve in his usual pass-catching role. Rex Burkhead was the goal-line back last week, but if we get word Harris is active or any reports about a positive role, I feel this is a terrific number on who we expected to be the starter during camp. No Cam also takes away a goal-line rushing threat for the Pats.

Props To Monitor: RB rushing attempts/yards

Outside of the touchdown market, we don’t have any RB props available for the Patriots. No Michel is going to mean some changes. Follow along for reports on Harris’ status. If he winds up the starter, we could see some props to take advantage of. If not, maybe backing Burkhead in some form is the way to go.

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Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay Packers

Matt Ryan Passing Yards: OVER 305.5 (-112)

Ryan has surprisingly only topped this number once, back in Week 1 against the Seahawks. Even more surprisingly, Ryan failed to go over his passing prop against the Cowboys, which is a little concerning for his outlook in this game. But Atlanta was playing from ahead that entire game and the Falcons are six-point underdogs in this one. With Julio Jones returning from injury and Calvin Ridley set to play, Ryan should have his way against a Green Bay defense that’s found itself in a shootout each game this season. Going back to last season, we know Ryan is a pretty consistent 300-yard passer.

Touchdown Scorer: Robert Tonyan (+165)

I didn’t think Tonyan would ever be popping as value at a price like this, but given the Packers’ current state at WR, Aaron Rodgers doesn’t have many red-zone options. Davante Adams will remain out for Green Bay, and with Allen Lazard now on IR, Tonyan is essentially the go-to-guy in the red zone. The TE has been targeted eight times over the past two weeks, catching a touchdown in each. I like that trend to continue against this soft Atlanta defense.

Aaron Jones Receiving Yards: OVER 35.5 (-112)

Building off the lack of WR options, we should see Jones step up as a pass-catcher in this game. Jones has been targeted 18 times through three games, and while he hasn’t been that efficient, he did have 68 receiving yards against the Lions in the game Adams got hurt. Jones’ usage goes way up with Adams off the field and Atlanta has been awful defending RBs going back to last season. The Falcons allowed massive receiving numbers to opposing RBs in 2019.

Props To Monitor: Marquez Valdes-Scantling overs

Just stating the obvious here with Adams and Lazard ruled out. DKSB has no MVS props up as I write this, but I’d expect some by kickoff. If the Falcons had a shutdown corner to key in on MVS, I would have no interest here. But the Falcons have a horrendous secondary and MVS should be heavily targeted. Let’s see what his yardage and receptions are set at.

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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is jedlow) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.

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