I truly hope you didn’t take last week’s incredible Sunday Night Football game for granted. Take a moment to look back a savor every Russell Wilson pass, every Kyler Murray rushing attempt and every crazy moment that led to an overtime classic, because we’re certainly not getting anything like that this weekend. Someone will win this game between the Eagles and the Cowboys, and that team will likely go on to win the NFC East. That’s about all I can say in a semi-positive sense about this matchup.
Let’s dive in and break it all down from a Showdown perspective.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $1.11M Sunday Night Showdown [$250K to 1st] (DAL vs PHI)
SHOWDOWN STRATEGY
Captain’s Picks
Carson Wentz ($17,700 CP) - Wentz is crazy expensive on this slate, but there’s more than a couple of factors that go into that decision. First and foremost, though it hasn’t always looked great on the field, the former first-round pick has been a fantasy stud dating back to Week 3. Despite being sacked an NFC-high 20 times in that stretch, despite an underwhelming 70.7% adjusted completion rate and despite 10 dropped passes, Wentz has averaged 25.5 DKFP per game and it’s all the result of volume. Wentz’s 226 drop backs lead all NFC quarterbacks in that span, while his 32 rushing attempts sit second overall to Kyler Murray. For all intents and purposes, the 27-year-old is the Eagles entire offense, something that isn’t likely to change too much with Miles Sanders (knee) once again on the shelf. That kind of role in a matchup against a Cowboys D/ST ($3,000) that’s surrendering the most points per game (34.7) and the fourth-most DKFP to QBs is a very enticing combination.
Eagles D/ST ($9,300 CP) - This is going to be a popular move on Sunday, but I really can’t find any faults in the logic. Sure, Eagles D/ST has seen their price increase by $1.6K since their matchup with the Giants on Thursday Night Football last week, yet that feels warranted when going up against an injury-plagued offensive line and Ben DiNucci ($8,600) — a rookie seventh-round pick out of James Madison University likely making his first-career NFL start. In Dallas last two games, both played without Dak Prescott (leg), the team has allowed nine sacks and scored a total of 13 points. Heck, DiNucci was only asked to drop back six times in his emergency stint following Andy Dalton’s concussion in Week 7 and he was sacked three times and he fumbled twice. Things could get really ugly over four full quarters.
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FLEX Plays
Ben DiNucci ($8,600) - Alright. Though I meant every word of what I outlined above, we still find ourselves at a bit of a crossroads when it comes to DiNucci’s viability on this slate. Do I think the 23-year-old is going to be very successful on Sunday? No. Not in a traditional sense, anyway. However, being good and being a decent DFS play are two different conversations. It’s more than likely we get a script where the Cowboys are trailing throughout this matchup and, in such a scenario, we might see DiNucci asked to drop back 25-30 times in the second-half alone. It’s not like the kid’s a statue in the pocket, either. In fact, in DiNucci’s senior season in college, he rushed for 569 yards and seven touchdowns. I wouldn’t advise 100% exposure, but if I can get a mix of volume and mobility from a starting QB for less than $9K, I’m going to feel compelled to get a piece or two.
Richard Rodgers ($5,600) - Rodgers jumps out as an obvious play against Dallas, though one whose fantasy fate is connected to the possibility of Dallas Goedert ($7,800) being activated from the IR prior to kickoff. Still, let’s explore Rodgers’ prospective value in a world where Goedert misses another game. In Week 7, acting as Philadelphia’s primary TE, Rodgers logged an 85.2% snap share and sat second on the team in targets with eight. None of this should be all that big a surprise, as the Eagles come into Week 8 leading the NFL in tight end total targets (82). It doesn’t really matter who he has available, Wentz will find his TEs each and every contest with consistency.
Jalen Reagor ($4,400) - While it’s not totally clear what Reagor’s role in going to be in his first week back from a thumb issue, the rookie did play on 84.5% of Philadelphia’s offensive snaps all the way back in Week 2. That’s probably a little optimistic — especially with Travis Fulgham ($9,200) playing so well — but it’s not like the Eagles have a lot of depth with DeSean Jackson (ankle) on IR and Alshon Jeffery (calf) still sidelined. Anyway, someone of Reagor’s archetype isn’t viable due to volume, he’s viable due to his ceiling and big play ability. The rookie is averaging 19.2 yards per reception in his brief career, the direct result of 151 air yards and an 18.9 aDOT in his first two professional games. Considering the Cowboys have conceded the second-most 40-plus yard passing plays in the league so far this season, I’d say Reagor has the opportunity to make an impact on this slate.
Fades
Ezekiel Elliott ($10,800) - Elliott’s been able to salvage some of his value by being a massive element of Dallas’ passing attack — registering 10 targets as recently as Week 6 against the Cardinals — but it’s difficult to rationalize spending upwards of $11K on a running back who lacks touchdown upside. In the Cowboys’ two games without Prescott, both contests that they lost by more than 20 points, Elliott’s averaged just 12.0 rushing attempts, with only one of those 24 total carries coming in the red zone. Also, in terms of matchup, this week leaves a lot to be desired. The Eagles are conceding a mere 3.50 adjusted line yards per opponent carry — the third-lowest mark in all of football. That should mean few open running lanes for Elliott and Tony Pollard ($1,600); someone who might actually be a decent value option considering his price and expanded snap count the past couple of games.
THE OUTCOME
This seems to have the makings of a pretty one-sided football game. While little about the Eagles’ tight victory over the Giants last Thursday was encouraging, they’ll be squaring off with a Cowboys squad that’s looked absolutely lost without their starting QB; not to mention a defense that ranks 30th overall by DVOA. Let’s just say Dallas is deserving of its 16-point implied team total in Week 8.
Final Score: Philadelphia 30, Dallas 14
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $1.11M Sunday Night Showdown [$250K to 1st] (DAL vs PHI)
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