We’re on to Week 4 in the NFL and the number of ways to take advantage of some crooked lines on player props are increasing. Injuries are giving plenty of talented players the opportunity to step up and make an impact, while the books are still hesitant to buy into some early trends. Here are my five favorite prop bets on DraftKings Sportsbook.
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EDITOR’S NOTE: Sunday’s Patriots-Chiefs game has been postponed, with the game scheduled to be played Monday night at 7:05 p.m. ET.
The best quarterback in football not named Patrick Mahomes is set to take aim at one of the softest secondaries in football and that only makes me love this bet even more. I feel like I’m being played with this number — Lockett has averaged eight catches over his three games and saw his targets balloon to a whopping 13 last week against Dallas. With Chris Carson expected to play but likely banged up, I think Seattle will opt to pass a bit more here, leading to another day with 9-10 targets for Lockett. If you know you’re getting nine or more targets on a guy this reliable, you take this over every time.
The Washington Football team has already proven this year that they’ve got an elite pass rush, the key to football’s second-best passing defense. They should be able to get to Jackson early and often, forcing him outside of the pocket to run. Jackson opted to run when things got bleak in the passing game on Monday and I suspect he’ll be running a good amount here, both to escape pressure and also on designed runs (Washington’s rushing defense is incredibly average). The Baltimore game script features a lot of Jackson runs and he’s already hit this total once in three games. He goes over here.
Another QB rushing total over and another week for me putting my money on the legs of Jones. This matchup should be pretty similar to last week’s against the 49ers when Jones found little success through the air against a good secondary. When things get bleak for the Giants and their starting quarterback, and they will early, Jones will scamper out of the pocket. His throwing ability is still too inconsistent to trust, so running is really all he’s got at times. He’s hit this over every week this year, and it continues to grow by the week. Keep taking this until it gets to around 22 or 23 yards.
When Drew Brees was in need of a big completion down the stretch on Sunday, he ultimately needed to find a receiver he could trust. Michael Thomas didn’t suit up, Jared Cook was injured during the game and remained on the sideline for the remainder and Tre’Quan Smith dropped a crucial pass in the second half. Brees ultimately looked the way of the veteran Sanders, who received five targets for the second time this year, catching four of them. Sanders is a guy that was already receiving targets before the injury to Thomas, and now that Cook is out as well, and some of Brees’ other options aren’t quite performing how he’d want, Sanders should be in line for six or seven catches against a pass defense ranked 16th in DVOA.
I’m sitting here trying to wrap my head around this total. The Giants’ rushing defense ranks as the third-worst according to Pro Football Focus’ DVOA and Henderson is coming off a week where he saw a season-high 49% of offensive snaps. It’s clear the Rams want to get him going and his talent running the football has been well-documented dating back to last year. He went for 118 yards on 20 carries in that 49% of snaps he played at Buffalo and 81 yards on 12 carries the week prior when he played on 42% of downs. It’s safe to assume Los Angeles will be continuing to increase his workload and he should shatter this number against a weak defense which is already beginning to look defeated, knowing its chances of making the postseason is incredibly slim.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is jetsfan196) and I may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.