Fantasy Baseball Picks: Top DraftKings MLB DFS Lineup Strategy for Rays vs. Dodgers World Series Game 6 on October 27

Somehow, it has been over 30 years since the Dodgers last won a World Series. Well, Los Angeles is a mere 27 outs away from breaking that dubious streak this evening, as a Game 6 win over Tampa Bay would end what has been a extremely weird 2020 MLB season. Can the stars of the NL West Champion carry their team across the finish line? Or will the pesky Rays continue to fight off elimination, as they’ve done twice before in these playoffs?

Let’s break it all down from a Showdown perspective.

Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB® Showdown $500K WORLD SERIES® Scuffle [$100K to 1st] (TB vs LAD)

SHOWDOWN STRATEGY

Captain’s Picks

Tony Gonsolin ($15,600 CP) - I truly believe that Gonsolin in the Captain’s spot will end up being a decent variance play. While stating pitchers tend to be popular at 1.5x value, Gonsolin’s role is a little murky heading into Game 6 and the right-hander has been roughed up in all three playoff appearances he’s made. However, while I’m sure the rookie’s leash is short, Dave Roberts has already mentioned that Julio Urias ($10,600) will be available for Wednesday’s potential Game 7 — not for tonight’s action. On top of that, Dustin May ($10,000) threw 30 high-leverage pitches on Sunday. So, who exactly is left to piggyback with Gonsolin? I think we see 80-plus pitches for the 26-year-old on Tuesday, which could lead to a lot of DFS upside. I mean, of the 111 pitchers to rack up at least 40.0 innings during the regular season, Gonsolin’s 2.29 FIP was the fifth-lowest mark in baseball. Add in a 6.57 K/BB ratio and an opponent wOBA of just .222 and it’s easy to envision a great outing for Gonsolin against a Rays lineup that was among the league-leaders in terms of strikeout rate.

Justin Turner ($13,200 CP) - Turner is simply too cheap on this slate. Though I’d have to think Corey Seager ($10,200) or Clayton Kershaw ($11,600) are currently the front-runners for World Series MVP should the Dodgers wrap this thing up, Turner certainly has an outside shot at the award with another solid performance in Game 6. In fact, even with an 0-for-4 showing in Sunday’s 4-2 victory, Turner’s still managed six extra-base hits in the first five games of this series. He’ll also draw a left-handed opponent this evening in Blake Snell ($11,000). The former AL Cy Young winner isn’t exactly an enticing matchup for anyone, but Turner has a long history of producing against southpaws. Going back to the beginning of 2017, the veteran is hitting .323 with a 1.017 OPS and a 168 wRC+ within the split. Specific to the regular season in 2020, Turner led everyone on Los Angeles with a .398 expected wOBA when facing lefties. Stick him in your Captain’s slot in Showdown and, maybe, head over to the DraftKings Sportsbook and bet him at +800 to take home a certain award named after Willie Mays.

FLEX Plays

Brandon Lowe ($8,600) - At this point, Lowe is the dictionary definition of a “boom or bust” DFS asset, as all three of the infielder’s hits so far in the World Series have left the ball park, yet he’s averaged 0.0 DKFP in the three games where he didn’t smack a home run. Still, despite Lowe’s obvious struggles, he is on the right side of a very apparent handedness advantage this evening. Like many RHPs, Gonsolin doesn’t really feature his slider when in a right-on-left matchup, despite the pitch generating a massive 29.0 whiff rate against RHBs during the regular season. Because of this pattern, Gonsolin not only sees a notable dip in his strikeout rate when facing LHBs, but also a jump in his expected wOBA within the split. While I do believe that the rookie will thrive on Tuesday, he has surrendered 3.52 home runs per nine in the postseason — including a long ball to Lowe in Game 2.

AJ Pollock ($7,200) - Pollock has been underwhelming so far in the playoffs, with his .282 slugging percentage across 42 plate appearances somehow coming in lower than his equally underwhelming .286 OBP. However, as it pertained to hitting left-handed pitching in 2020, few had better raw results than the 32-year-old. For the season, Pollock slashed .345/.367/.818 with a .473 ISO and a 201 wRC+ within the split. To add some context, among qualified National League batters, that .818 slugging percentage was the second-highest figure, trailing only Marcell Ozuna of the Braves. I’d expect to see both Pollock and Enrique Hernandez ($6,000) in the Dodgers’ lineup this evening against Snell and each should have two or three chances to do some damage.

Fades

Blake Snell ($11,000) - While Snell did prove a lot of people (myself included) wrong with a nine-strikeout performance in Game 2, many of the red flags that scared me away from the southpaw were still present in that outing. Snell walked four opponents and needed 88 pitches to get through just 4.2 innings. Heck, he didn’t get stick around long enough to qualify for the win, as Nick Anderson ($5,400) came in and vultured that honor in the fifth. Snell just hasn’t looked quite right all season and his 5.29 FIP in the playoffs is not overly enticing. So, I’ll stick with the process and continue to fade him in a matchup with a Los Angeles squad that posted the lowest chase rate and strikeout rate of any National League team in 2020.

THE OUTCOME

Speaking of sticking with the process, I came into this series predicting Dodgers in six and now doesn’t seem like the time to abandon that claim. Sure, Tony Gonsolin hasn’t looked great pitching in the postseason, but it’s not like Blake Snell’s been much better and the rookie has significantly greater regular season numbers to fall back on — not to mention a superior offense. To be honest, it’s simply about time that Los Angeles won a World Series.

Final Score: Los Angeles 5, Tampa Bay 2

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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is theglt13) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.