The injury bug reared its ugly face once again and made an impact on how Week 7 played out. As we begin to prepare for Week 8 in the NFL, I’ll take a look at three players who have seen some of the biggest DraftKings salary changes for Sunday.
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Brandon Aiyuk ($5,800) vs. Seattle Seahawks
Week 7 Salary: $4,100 ($1,700 increase)
A MASSIVE jump in salary for the 49ers’ WR2 ahead of an extremely tasty matchup against the Seahawks’ secondary. To be fair, even with this huge jump this hardly feels like an expensive salary to take on against a secondary that’s allowing an average of 64 DKFP, 240 receiving yards and a 70.2% catch rate to opposing receivers. For reference, the Browns are allowing the second-most DKFP to opposing receivers and they’re at 49.7. So it’s essentially the Seahawks and then the rest of the league.
Aiyuk continues to play on some of the most offensive snaps among the Niners’ receivers, logging 75.8% in Week 7, which was more than Deebo Samuel at 62.1%, who is also going to be out this week. Kendrick Bourne was a distant third at 45.5%. Of those, he’s spending the majority of his time wide left, accounting for 50.8% of his snaps. That means he draws the arguably the best matchup of the bunch against CB Quinton Dunbar. Dunbar has allowed an average of 13 YPR on 19 catches while being targeted against 33 times. This is such a great spot for Aiyuk and his rising target share, which is now up to 14.1% overall, is in line to benefit.
Jarvis Landry ($5,600) vs. Las Vegas Raiders
Week 7 Salary: $4,600 ($1,000 increase)
It’s not as if Landry is coming off a big game, as he made five catches on six targets for 48 yards and 10.96 DKFP. The news that Odell Beckham Jr. is out for the season with an ACL tear has thrusted Landry into the WR1 role on this team.
With Beckham out of the game, we didn’t see much change in Landry’s position on the field, as he had a typical game for him, with 47% of his snaps in the slot and 53% wide. He did see the highest target share of the week, along with Rashard Higgins ($4,200) at 21.4%. It’s hard to nail down a particular matchup for Landry ahead of Week 8 because he’s truly all over the field. With that in mind, overall, the Raiders’ secondary has been generous to opposing receivers, allowing an average of 41.2 DKFP, 179 receiving yards and seven touchdowns scored.
While this isn’t a bad price for Landry at all, I am a bit concerned about Higgins, who didn’t see more than a 7.9% target share at any point this season, quickly getting thrust into a prominent role. As of now, I would rather side with Higgins, who is $1,400 cheaper.
Julian Edelman ($4,400) vs. Buffalo Bills
Week 7 Salary: $5,000 (-$600 decrease)
We didn’t see many big name players see a notable drop in their salaries for this week. I totally get it, Edelman likely wasn’t on your radar for Week 8 to begin with, but I can’t get over how cheap he is. Granted, he completely deserves to be this cheap because his play has been downright awful. Among receivers with at least 35 targets, Edelman has the highest drop rate in the league at 19.2%. That’s simply absurd for someone who has made so many great catches throughout his career. With that said, we don’t care about what he’s done in the past, we simply care about if he’s an option or not this week.
The Patriots are sticking with Cam Newton ($5,700) at quarterback, as coach Bill Belichick said Newton is “absolutely” the team’s starter. If there was a “get right” spot for the Patriots, this isn’t the week for it against the Bills. Granted, Edelman has the better matchup among the other “receivers” on this team against slot corner Taron Johnson. Johnson has been targeted against 42 times, allowing 34 receptions for 381 yards and an average of 11.2 YPR. I would love, LOVE to take another shot with Edelman here and in big field tournaments, you can do so. Other than that, it’s just a really risky play that really isn’t all that necessary, even at one of the lowest salaries you’ve seen the Pats’ WR1 available for.
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