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DraftKings Fantasy Football DFS Trends and Early NFL Predictions for Week 8

Steve Buchanan analyzes three player performances from Week 7 and gives his take on if it’ll continue or not in Week 8.

There is nothing better than some overreactions after the dust settles on a football Sunday. All of us armchair quarterbacks go and make our critiques and tell all our friends and family about what we would have done differently.

The great thing for me is, they asked me to do this and YOU’RE sitting here reading it! How about that?

For this piece, each week we’ll take a look at some players that either potentially overachieved or underachieved and what the outlook for them is moving forward — specifically for next week’s game. Are they set up for more success or could someone have simply had a bad week? My job here is to try and figure that out and relay that information to you. Let’s take a look!

Oh, feel free to tell me how wrong I am by getting at me on Twitter @SBuchanan24.

Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL Showdown $3.5M Millionaire [$1M to 1st]

Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers
Week 7 Fantasy Total: 41.48 DKFP

I think it’s time to officially say that Herbert is the real deal. To be fair, I don’t think we needed him to carve up the Jaguars’ secondary to get to that point, but his Week 7 performance was the cherry on top. Of 43 pass attempts, Herbert completed 27 passes for 347 yards, three touchdowns and really showed off what he could do with his legs, rushing nine times for 66 yards and a touchdown. Herbert was the fourth quarterback to throw for over 300 yards against this Jaguars defense while his 41.44 DKFP were by far the highest fantasy output against them, surpassing Deshaun Watson’s 29.86-DKFP game back in Week 5.

His outlook for Week 8 looks promising, as the Chargers travel to Denver to take on the Broncos. Defensively, the Broncos are a tougher matchup than the Jaguars, but quite frankly, we could say that about almost anyone, (except Dallas, holy crap are they a disaster). You could easily point out that Patrick Mahomes only threw for 200 yards against them, but he only made 23 pass attempts and the Chiefs still won by a score of 43-16. The Chargers are averaging 35.8 pass attempts per game, which is just outside the top 10 in the league. With their run game banged up, they’ll continue to rely on the arm of Herbert. With a 78.1% adjusted completion percentage, which is ninth in the league, Herbert is going to be a heavily looked to fantasy asset moving forward.

Nelson Agholor, Las Vegas Raiders
Week 7 Fantasy Total: 24.7 DKFP

This is such a classic Agholor move. He’ll reel everybody in after a good performance and then he’ll just fade away into fantasy irrelevance — or will he?

Against a tough Buccaneers secondary, Agholor was heavily targeted by Derek Carr, drawing nine targets on which he made five receptions for 107 yards and a touchdown, good for 24.7 DKFP. The majority of his yards came against CB Jamel Dean, who allowed two of the four targets when covering Agholor to be caught for 53 yards. It was a rough day at the office for Dean, who allowed an average of 19.7 YPR.

Agholor led the team with 51 offensive snaps, barely edging out Henry Ruggs III, who played on 49. Ruggs is looking more like the downfield target, as seven of his 14 targets have gone for at least 20-plus yards. Agholor is emerging more as the top target in this offense at the receiver position and has scored in three straight games. Now, the Raiders are facing a Browns secondary that is simply getting dismantled by opposing receivers, allowing an average of 210 receiving yards and a total of 11 touchdowns scored. At only $4,700, Agholor should be on your radar in this game.

Cam Newton, New England Patriots
Week 7 Fantasy Total: 2.82 DKFP

In what was by far his worst performance of the season, Newton was yanked from the Patriots’ 33-6 loss to the 49ers, allowing Jarrett Stidham (1.86 DKFP) to enter the game. After the game, coach Bill Belichick said Newton is “absolutely” the team’s starter. Newton will now have a chance to show he can still be a starter and improve upon a putrid 9-for-15 for 98 yards and three-interception performance against the Niners.

Newton’s rushing upside always keeps him fantasy relevant. Even after the abysmal performance against the Niners, Newton is still averaging 48.8 yards per game with five rushing touchdowns. The Bills have allowed 120 rushing yards on 24 attempts, good for 5.0 YPC. Their secondary has been good, as expected, and this is where I lose all faith in using Newton this week.

Simply put, the Patriots have one of the worst set of receivers going. Julian Edelman looked washed and has just a 53.9 passer rating when targeted. That’s the second-worst in the league amongst players with at least 35 targets. He also has the highest drop rate in the league at 19.2%. If you can’t get it to Edelman, who to go to? Jakobi Myers looked good after N’Keal Harry exited with an injury, catching four of his six targets for 60 yards. In the end, this Bills secondary will hardly be tested in what should be another long day for the Patriots’ offense. Newton, for me, remains on the board until either the Patriots make a trade (good luck with that) or he starts clicking with his receivers more. At least in Week 8, that doesn’t look to be where it changes.

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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is steveazors) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.

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