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NFL Cheat Sheet: DraftKings Fantasy Football DFS Picks, Predictions, Betting Odds for Week 7

Steve Buchanan breaks down the Week 7 DraftKings NFL slate with game analysis, odds, lines and prop bets.

Week 7 features an 11-game slate with a bit more of a balanced schedule this time around. After only two late afternoon games last week, Week 7 has four games starting after 4:05 p.m. ET. Let’s take a look at this slate as a whole and get you set to build your lineups.

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Game Notes

Biggest DraftKings Sportsbook Moneyline Favorite

Buffalo Bills (-590; -13) at New York Jets (+450)

I mean, how can anyone going against the Jets not be massive favorites at this point? After being shutout by the Dolphins last week, the Jets are now averaging just 12.5 points per game — the lowest in the league. Sam Darnold ($5,000) is questionable to play this week and did get in a limited showing at practice on Wednesday, which would be a boost to a Jets offense that desperately needs SOMETHING. To be fair, in the four games Darnold has played, they’ve averaged 16.2 points per game. At this point, the only viable player on the Jets is Jamison Crowder ($5,900), who is nursing a groin injury, but also has seen at least 10 targets in the four games he’s played while averaging 22.1 DKFP.

As for the Bills, they’re 3-3 against the spread and 3-2 when favored. The Jets are not only 0-6 ATS, but have missed covering by a massive -11.3 points — the largest margin in the league. Josh Allen ($7,700) is the second most expensive quarterback on this slate and is looking as if he’ll be a popular option. For as bad as the Jets have been, they’re only around league average in fantasy points allowed to opposing QBs at 20.9. Allen has scored at least 25.0 DKFP in the Bills’ four wins, while failing to exceed 18.0 DKFP in the two losses. I’m not convinced you need to pay for Allen this week, especially with Russell Wilson ($8,000) just $300 more against the Cardinals with a projected total of 56.

Other notable favorites: Kansas City Chiefs (-435; -9.5) vs. Denver Broncos (+360), Los Angeles Chargers (-345; -7.5) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (+295)

Highest DraftKings Sportsbook Projected Total

Seattle Seahawks (29.5 points; -3.5) at Arizona Cardinals (26.5 points; -12) 56 points

I’ve gotten so tired of all these games I don’t want to target in the 4 o’clock window that week’s slate is a welcomed refresher. Week 7 has a very good schedule in this block and it includes the highest projected scoring game of the entire slate. The Seahawks are one of six NFL teams averaging at least 30.0 points per game and lead the pack with 33.8. The Cardinals are just outside the top 10 at 27.7 and are coming off a game in which they dropped 38 points on the Cowboys.

While Wilson is going to get plenty of attention, I love using Kyler Murray ($7,100) at a $900 discount. Using him with DeAndre Hopkins ($8,200) is expensive, but they’re in such a great spot. Hopkins should be seeing CB Quinton Dunbar in coverage, who has been targeted against 21 times allowing 11 receptions and 15.1 YPR. Hopkins is dealing with an ankle issue so it’s worth watching his practice status during the week. Christian Kirk ($4,900) is also a very cheap way of getting exposure to this game. Of his 22 targets, nine have been for 20 yards or more. He’s only made three catches on those opportunities, but only three of them have been catchable. On those receptions, he’s gone for 153 yards and a touchdown. A Murray/Kirk stack would certainly be unique and then you can run it back with either DK Metcalf ($7,200) or Tyler Lockett ($6,600).

DVP Matchups

This section will highlight the average DKFP allowed to each position. These numbers will now reflect the current 2020 season.

Worst QB Matchups

Team, Opponent, PTS/G Allowed, Rank

New Orleans Saints, Carolina Panthers, 15.7, 4th
Tennessee Titans, Pittsburgh Steelers, 16.8, T-5th
San Francisco 49ers, New England Patriots, 16.8, T-5th

Best QB Matchups

Team, Opponent, PTS/G Allowed, Rank

Detroit Lions, Atlanta Falcons, 32.6, 32nd
Arizona Cardinals, Seattle Seahawks, 28.7, 31st
Jacksonville Jaguars, Los Angeles Chargers, 26.3, 30th

Worst RB Matchups

Team, Opponent, PTS/G Allowed, Rank

New England Patriots, San Francisco 49ers, 16.5, T-1st
Tennessee Titans, Pittsburgh Steelers, 16.5 T-1st
Kansas City Chiefs, Denver Broncos, 17.7 T-3rd

Best RB Matchups

Team, Opponent, PTS/G Allowed, Rank

Houston Texans, Green Bay Packers, 35.2, 32nd
Green Bay Packers, Houston Texans, 34.9, 31st
New Orleans Saints, Carolina Panthers, 33.5, 29th

Worst WR Matchups

Team, Opponent, PTS/G Allowed, Rank

Dallas Cowboys, Washington Football Team, 27.4, 1st
New Orleans Saints, Carolina Panthers, 30.8, 4th
Denver Broncos, Kansas City Chiefs, 31.6, 5th

Best WR Matchups

Team, Opponent, PTS/G Allowed, Rank

Arizona Cardinals, Seattle Seahawks, 63.8 32nd
Pittsburgh Steelers, Tennessee Titans, 47.1, 30th
Detroit Lions, Atlanta Falcons, 46.8, T-28th

Worst TE Matchups

Team, Opponent, PTS/G Allowed, Rank

Atlanta Falcons, Detroit Lions, 6.3, 2nd
Arizona Cardinals, Seattle Seahawks, 7.9, 4th
San Francisco 49ers, New England Patriots, 8.2, 5th

Best TE Matchups

Team, Opponent, PTS/G Allowed, Rank

Carolina Panthers, New Orleans Saints, 22.5 32nd
New York Jets, Buffalo Bills, 21.6, 31st
Detroit Lions, Atlanta Falcons, 20.8 30th

Target Report

Week 6 Target Leaders

Week 17 Playoff Implications

Team Opponent Spread Over/Under Playoff Implication
Team Opponent Spread Over/Under Playoff Implication
Dalls Cowboys New York Giants DAL -3 45 Winner goes to playoffs if PHI beats WAS
Cleveland Browns Pittsburgh Steelers CLE -9 42 CLE W needed
Miami Dolphins Buffalo Bills BUF -3.5 43 MIA W needed
Baltimore Ravens Cincinnati Bengals BAL -12.5 44 BAL W needed
Arizona Cardinals LA Rams ARI -3.5 40.5 Winner goes to playoffs
Jacksonville Jaguars Indianapolis Colts IND -14 49.5 IND W needed
Tennesse Titans Houston Texans TEN -7.5 56 TEN W to clinch AFC South
Green Bay Packers Chicago Bears GB -5.5 51 GB W locks No.1 Seed & Bye
New Orleans Saints Carolina Panthers NO -6.5 47.5 NO shot at No.1 Seed
Seattle Seahawks San Francisco 49ers SEA -6.5 46 SEA shot at No.1 Seed

DraftKings Lineup Starters

Quarterback to build around

Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals vs. Seattle Seahawks, $7,100 — It’s hard to not want to play Murray in this expected shootout against the Seahawks. Even though Wilson gives you the safer passing yards floor, Murray makes up for it with his legs, averaging a massive 61.7 rushing yards per game with six total rushing touchdowns. Murray is second on the team in red zone rush attempts, handling 25.8% of them. With the idea that the Cardinals are playing from behind in this game, Murray isn’t afraid to go downfield and has made 23 pass attempts of greater than 20 yards, which ties him for 11th in the league. For reference, Kirk Cousins tops the list with 36. Against a team that struggles with the deep balls to begin with, this sets up for an excellent week for Murray.

Wide Receiver To Pair Him With

Christin Kirk, Arizona Cardinals vs. Seattle Seahawks, $4,900 — When you’re playing Murray, it’s a no-brainer to pair him with his top receiver in Hopkins and many will. I like going with Kirk here. He’s who Murray will turn to for those deep shots and as I’ve mentioned earlier, has done so 39% of the time. Even while registering only 4.8 targets per game, Kirk is averaging 11.1 DKFP with three touchdowns and 48.0 receiving yards per game. You’re going to need to save salary somewhere so I have no issues with using Kirk in that spot while also not skimping out on a high ceiling.

Top Running Back To Consider

James Conner, Pittsburgh Steelers at Tennessee Titans, $6,700 — I think Conner is a bit too cheap for this matchup and I’ll be looking to take advantage of that against the Titans. It doesn’t seem or feel like it, but Conner has gone over 100 rushing yards in three of the five games he’s played. He averaged 5.9 YPC in those games while taking at least 16 carries. Conner can be trusted upon for 15+ touches per game and should have an immense amount of opportunities to rack up the yards. Against opposing running backs, the Titans have allowed an average of 25.7 DKFP, 112.4 rushing and 28.4 receiving yards.

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