Welcome back for Week 4 as we run down my top five NFL QB-WR stacks for DraftKings DFS this week. Let’s get to it.
For the uninitiated, the concept behind stacking a QB with his WR is simple: Both players benefit from each completion, doubling the benefit of that play for your DraftKings fantasy lineup. With the significance of stacking in mind, this article aims to highlight the best stacking options for Sunday’s main DraftKings slate.
EDITOR’S NOTE: Sunday’s Patriots-Chiefs game has been postponed, with the game scheduled to be played Monday night at 7:05 p.m. ET.
5. Ryan Fitzpatrick ($5,400)/DeVante Parker ($5,700), Miami Dolphins vs. Seattle Seahawks
Fitzpatrick is the classic GPP-only kind of QB, as his TD-INT game log this season perfectly demonstrates. Week 1: zero TDs, three INTs, 6.4 DKFP. Weeks 2 & 3: two TDs, zero INTs, 27.3 and 25.2 DKFP. There’s a high likelihood of either a high-profit boom or lineup-ruining bust and, over the past few seasons, the booms have come a lot more often than the busts. Since the start of 2018, in games he started, Fitzpatrick has topped 25.0 DKFP 10 times compared to just four games below 14.0 DKFP.
The Seahawks have given up the second-most DKFP to opposing QBs (better than only the Falcons), allowing 6.7 DKFP more than the third-worst team. They’re even more of a sieve for WRs. WRs facing Seattle have scored a combined 237.6 DKFP through three games — by far the most in the league. The second-worst team has yielded 158.1 DKFP. Calling this a favorable matchup is underselling it.
Parker has continued to build upon his strong finish to 2019. Though he missed most of Week 1, he trails TE Mike Gesicki ($5,100) by just two targets and six yards for the clubhouse lead. I really like Preston Williams ($4,500) and would not be surprised at all if he had a great game here, too. That said, there have been too many red flags in his usage so far this season for me to give him a full-throated endorsement.
4. Tom Brady ($6,100)/Mike Evans ($6,400), Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Early in the season, a misleading opponent rank can create a massive strategic advantage for DFS managers. That big scary red “1st” next to Evans and Scotty Miller ($4,100) will put a lot of managers off and depress their roster rates. But it’s incredibly unlikely the 2020 Chargers are actually the toughest matchup for a WR. In fact, my guess is that they are somewhere between a neutral matchup and slightly favorable matchup. The Chargers’ defense deserves credit for their strong showing against the Chiefs, a familiar divisional rival, but their other opponents were the Bengals and the Panthers, two of the worst teams in the league. In Week 1, when rookie Joe Burrow was making his NFL debut without the benefit of a preseason, Cincinnati led almost the entire game and had attempted more runs than passes until their final drive. In Week 3, the Chargers were again losing the entire game and the CMC-less Panthers attempted only 28 passes — the 17th-fewest by any team in any game this season. Game script and opponent quality did more to suppress those passing stats than the Chargers. DVOA, which attempts to control for situation and opponent quality, rates the Los Angeles pass defense as almost exactly league average (14th). Last season, DVOA ranked them 23rd, and the defense will be without several Pro Bowlers on Sunday.
I’m assuming Chris Godwin (hamstring; doubtful) is out again in Week 4. When he was out in Week 2, Evans caught 7-of-10 targets for 104 yards and a TD. Evans has four TDs through three games, so he’d be a reasonable DFS target even if Godwin were healthy, but the likelihood of extra volume in this better-than-it-looks matchup makes him even more attractive. If Miller (hip; questionable) plays, he is a decent cheap alternative, though it is important to note that his targets dipped — not rose — in Week 2. While Brady is not playing nearly as well as he did in his prime, he’s still managed to top 22.0 DKFP in two of his three games, and he’s attempted at least 35 passes each week.
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3. Kyler Murray ($7,000)/DeAndre Hopkins ($8,500), Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers
Well, this pair’s salaries have finally risen high enough to give me pause. I’m still not avoiding them, but the rising cost is enough to bump them out of my top two. There are three core reasons for this pick: This pairing has topped 50.0 DKFP combined in each of the first three games, Hopkins’ volume and Murray’s running ability makes this pair relatively game script-proof and, finally, I believe the matchup is much more favorable than it looks at a quick glance.
DraftKings opponent rank lists the Panthers as 10th (in that big scary red) for QBs and 17th for WRs. But, similar to the Chargers’ situation above, those ranks are probably misleading. QBs facing the Panthers have logged a total of four rush attempts, while Murray has rushed at least five times in all three games. The two WRs to see at least 10 targets against Carolina each topped 100 yards and 26.0 DKFP — Hopkins is averaging 12.3 targets. In two of their games, the Panthers were losing most of the game, leading to run-heavy game scripts. The third game, against the Raiders, was competitive throughout, but most of Las Vegas’ fantasy points went to RB Josh Jacobs, who ran for three TDs. Before the season, many predicted that the Panthers would have one of the weakest defenses, and I don’t think we’ve seen enough to meaningfully shift off of that position.
2. Russell Wilson ($7,800)/DK Metcalf ($6,800), Seattle Seahawks at Miami Dolphins
This is a similar recommendation to the Cardinals pairing. The salaries are finally high enough that these Seahawks are no longer coming at a large discount, but they have been so consistently excellent that it’s still worth riding them, especially in a favorable matchup. Wilson leads all QBs in DKFP, and the Seahawks have become one of the most pass-oriented offenses in the league, per Sharp Football Stats. Metcalf has topped 90 yards and a TD in each of the first three games, and he should have had a second TD in Week 3. The Dolphins are allowing the most yards per pass attempt in the NFL, and they’ve given up the third-most rushing yards to QBs. The salaries are high enough to keep this stack out of the top spot, but I still feel really good about them.
1. Dak Prescott ($7,200)/CeeDee Lamb ($5,400), Dallas Cowboys vs. Cleveland Browns
After Michael Gallup’s ($6,200) dominant showing in Week 3 — six catches on nine targets for 138 yards and a TD — I expect him to end up on more Week 4 rosters than Lamb. I suspect that Lamb is the better play, especially after factoring in the $800 savings. Dallas is using Lamb mostly in the slot, while Gallup is lining up on the outside. The Browns have been much more favorable to slot WRs than those who lineup outside. Their most productive opponent was Tyler Boyd, who scored 20.2 DKFP lining up almost exclusively in the slot. In Week 3, Dontrelle Inman out-produced Terry McLaurin, as Inman splits time between the slot and the outside, while McLaurin lines up outside more than 70% of the time. And Marquise Brown, who also splits his time like Inman, is the only WR to top 100 yards against the Browns so far. On top of that, Lamb has more targets and catches than Gallup, and he has topped double-digit DKFP in every game of his young career.
Prescott has been great so far, and Dallas is airing the ball out like crazy. They lead the league in pass attempts. And, of course, he has the added value of being able to score with his legs, as he did when he run for three TDs in Week 2.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is arikleen) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
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