Another week, another Monday Night Football doubleheader. The Kansas City Chiefs have ballooned up to 5.5-point road favorites in Buffalo, while the Dallas Cowboys have shifted from home dogs to favorites in Andy Dalton’s first start with the team. Both games have hit a total of 55 on Monday, so we should see some points on the board. Here’s what jumps out on DraftKings Sportsbook.
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Kansas City Chiefs vs. Buffalo Bills
KC -5.5 (-110)
I was fortunate enough to snag the Chiefs at -3 last week and already wrote it up in some articles. I figured it was worth mentioning again on game day, as I still lean towards laying the points with KC, even with the growing line. Both teams are looking for bounce-back wins, but I’ll put my trust in Patrick Mahomes and his offense to come out stronger than Josh Allen. The Chiefs are far from perfect on defense, but I think what we saw from Buffalo on Tuesday was much more telling, getting shredded by the Titans. When the line moves against Mahomes, as it has this week, he’s 10-4-1 ATS, per Bet Labs.
Player to have Most Passing Yards: Patrick Mahomes (-132) > Josh Allen
This is kind of like when you play the value on a lookahead line. The perception a few weeks ago of Mahomes and Allen being this close on a passing yards prop would be laughable, but here we are. We know what we’re getting in Mahomes, and Allen returned to form with a dud last week. Mahomes gets the better matchup against the worse passing defense, as well.
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Arizona Cardinals vs. Dallas Cowboys
DAL Moneyline (-114)
More value that we’re missing out on. I locked in the Cowboys at +3 last week and had it in some articles, but I still project them to win this game, so I’ll include the moneyline as a play. This was going to be DAL -3 before Dak Prescott’s injury, and as good as he’s been, I’m not convinced the Cowboys shouldn’t be similarly valued in this spot. Dalton is almost certainly the most talented backup QB in the NFL and has experience taking the Bengals to the playoffs five years in a row. He has terrific weapons at his disposal in Ezekiel Elliott, Amari Cooper, Michael Gallup and CeeDee Lamb, and should thrive in this offense. This could be the best we’ve seen of Dalton. Meanwhile, Arizona’s three wins are looking worse by the week, over SF, WAS and NYJ. The Cardinals lost outright as favorites to the Panthers and Lions and could struggle here on the road.
Michael Gallup Receiving Yards: OVER 41.5 (-118)
This is my top prop for Monday, so if you’re betting one thing, this is where I’d look. Gallup’s averaging nearly 70 yards per game and has gone for 50-plus yards through the air in four of his five games. He looked like he had a strong connection with Dalton late in the win over the Giants, catching all three of his targets from his new QB for 65 yards. This is a very modest number given this matchup, but the QB “downgrade” could actually be beneficial for Gallup’s yardage.
Chase Edmonds Receiving Yards: OVER 22.5 (-112)
Edmonds has seen his role grow each week and is the clear-cut passing down back for Arizona. He’s caught 5-of-6 targets in each of the last two weeks, going for 24 yards against Carolina and 56 yards against the Jets. Dallas has done well against RBs this season on the ground, but that could lead to the Cardinals looking to find production through the air.
Kenyan Drake Rushing Attempts: OVER 14.5 (-121)
When Arizona does run the ball, it’s almost strictly with Drake. As much of a fantasy bust as he’s been so far, Drake’s averaging 17 carries per game, going over 14.5 in four of the five. It seems unlikely that Arizona will go away from him in this game, even with Edmonds’ role in the passing game. I prefer to just key in on the workload here for Drake, rather than looking to his yardage prop. I am more confident he gets the work than I am in him producing with it.
Player to have Most Receiving Yards: DeAndre Hopkins (-165) > Amari Cooper
I don’t think anyone’s jumping out of their seat to lay -165 on a yardage matchup between two star WRs, but Cooper can really tend to disappear, while Hopkins has been thriving in his new offense. Cooper does have a pair of 100-yard games this season, but that was with Dak. Last week, Cooper managed just two receptions for 23 yards. There could be a drop off here, and the matchup is much easier for Hopkins. The Dallas secondary is among the worst in the NFL, giving up massive plays. Hopkins has already put up over 130 yards three times this season.
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