The MLB Playoffs are underway, and we are focusing on the DraftKings Showdown contest for Game 6 of the ALCS between the Rays and Astros, which takes place on Friday at 6:07 p.m. ET.

Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB Showdown $50K Hidden Ball Trick [$10K to 1st] (HOU vs TB)

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Showdown Strategy

Houston Astros

Unlike yesterday, both of these teams are actually rolling with starting pitchers today. Houston and Tampa Bay both went with openers in Game 5, making pitching really tough to nail down. Framber Valdez ($11,000) is arguably the best pitcher on Houston and is coming off a really strong season. He’s averaging 20.6 DKFP this year and has scored over 20.0 DKFP in five consecutive starts. Valdez has allowed a total of just four earned runs across his three playoff starts.

The Astros’ offense has come alive in the postseason. Nobody has upped their game on this roster more than Jose Altuve ($10,000). After the worst regular season of his career, Altuve has been one of the top fantasy producers in the playoffs. He’s scored at least 17.0 DKFP in five of his last seven games.

It’s tough to not rant on the price of Michael Brantley ($6,400) since it never goes up no matter how well he plays. Brantley is capable of hitting left and right-handed pitching and put up a 134 wRC+ in the regular season. It was his best mark in years and he’s only gotten better during the playoffs. Since Brantley has a 171 wRC+ in the postseason, it doesn’t make sense that he continues to carry such a cheap price tag.

Carlos Correa ($8,800) could be a popular play that I am looking to fade. He’s been a boom-or-bust play in this series and his ownership could get inflated after hitting a walk off homer yesterday. Correa didn’t have a hit before homering last night, but he has under 5.0 DKFP in the three games he didn’t hit a home run during this series.

Since Houston is going up against a lefty, I assume Aledmys Diaz ($5,400) is going to enter the starting lineup. As long as this is the case, he’s a strong value option. Diaz has played well when given the chance to play in the playoffs with a 130 wRC+. Yuli Gurriel ($4,600) is the only projected starter on Houston with a cheaper salary.

Tampa Bay Rays

This has been a slightly disappointing season for Blake Snell ($10,600). Obviously, this can all change with a win tonight. Tampa Bay handled Snell with extreme caution all season, which kept him out of the Cy Young conversation and led to him only averaging 16.7 DKFP. While Snell put up a 3.15 ERA in the regular season, there were some red flags. He was extremely lucky to have an 89.1% strand rate and he got hit much harder than we are accustomed to. This led to a 29.4% HR/FB ratio for Snell. He strikes out enough batters that he’s a good fantasy option today, but he’s my second choice of the two starting pitchers.

How good is Randy Arozarena ($14,700 CP)? He comes up with a massive hit in seemingly every game and last night was no different. Even though the Rays didn’t win, Arozarena hit a key homer, his fourth in five games. One of the best young hitters in baseball, Arozarena now has a 264 wRC+ in the playoffs and is my favorite choice for the Captain’s spot.

Hopefully, Hunter Renfroe ($5,000) will get into the Rays’ starting lineup tonight. He’s crushed left-handed pitching throughout his career and would be one of the more likely players to hit a homer if he draws a start. For his career, Renfroe has a 137 wRC+ against left-handed pitching.

Mike Brosseau ($7,200) quietly had a great regular season. He put up a 157 wRC+ and was especially effective against left-handed pitching. Against southpaws, Brosseau had a 198 wRC+. The risk here is that he could get pinch-hit for even if he starts, but I think his upside is worth rolling the dice.

The Outcome

Even though the Rays are up 3-2 in the series, I think the Astros are playing better. Houston has the better expected batting average in every game of this series. Tampa Bay is being carried by terrific defense and a little bit of luck. Nothing would fit better into 2020 than the Astros coming back from a 3-0 hole to beat Tampa Bay. I give Houston a slight edge tonight. This is a team with a ton of talent on offense and it’s finally starting to come together.

Final Score: Houston 5, Tampa Bay 3

Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB Showdown $50K Hidden Ball Trick [$10K to 1st] (HOU vs TB)

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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is gehrenberg) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.

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