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NFL Cheat Sheet: DraftKings Fantasy Football DFS Picks, Predictions, Betting Odds for Week 6

Steve Buchanan breaks down the Week 6 DraftKings NFL slate with game analysis, odds, lines and prop bets.

Week 6 in the NFL comes with drama already, as COVID-19 has threatened some schedule changes. We’ll try to navigate through the weeds once again and get you ready to set your lineups for Sunday’s main DraftKings fantasy football slate.

Feel free to drop me a follow as well on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.

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Game Notes

Biggest DraftKings Sportsbook Moneyline Favorite

Denver Broncos (+375; +10) at New England Patriots (-455)

This game’s status is in question as the Patriots deal with more potential COVID-19 issues, but if it plays this week, it looks as if both teams will be getting back their starting quarterbacks. Cam Newton ($6,500) is on track to return after a bout with COVID-19 and Drew Lock ($5,400) is coming back from a right shoulder injury. Even with the good news for the Broncos, they’re massive underdogs against the Patriots. As evidenced by the Patriots’ loss against the Chiefs, this team badly needs Newton under center, as they only managed to score 10 points and had just as many turnovers (slightly dramatic). Coming into this game, the Broncos are a solid 3-1 ATS but have covered by the slightest average margin of +0.1. The Patriots are 2-2 ATS, covering by an average of +1.4 points.

The Broncos’ secondary has been downright awful and not one you should be looking to avoid. Coming into this game, they’ve allowed an average of 198 receiving yards and a 66.3% catch rate to opposing receivers. The Broncos have also been run on by opposing quarterbacks, averaging 19.2 yards per game. With the status of RB Melvin Gordon ($6,000) up in the air due to off-field issues, I simply don’t see a way where the Broncos keep this game close.

Other notable favorites: Miami Dolphins (-400; -9.5) vs. New York Jets (+355), Indianapolis Colts (-360; -7.5) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (+300)

Highest DraftKings Sportsbook Projected Total

Green Bay Packers (27.5 points) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (27.5 points; -12) 55.5 points

This total has been on the rise since originally opening at 51.5. The Bucs originally opened as the favorites in this one at -2 but as I write this, they’ve fallen to 1-point underdogs. Both of these teams have done well at hitting the over, with the Packers at 3-1 while covering by an average of +12.4 points. The Bucs are 3-2 hitting the over and covering by an average of +5.3 points.

Neither team has a real specific area, aside from attacking the Packers on the ground, that we can take advantage of. These are simply two teams that are putting up a ton of points. The Packers are averaging a league-leading 38 points per game while the Bucs are at 27.8, which is tied for 11th. Both of these teams are going to air the ball out, especially Tom Brady ($6,500), who is averaging 39.2 pass attempts per game, the sixth-highest in the league. Both teams are also getting healthy ahead of this game, as Davante Adams ($8,000) will play for the first time since Week 2 and Chris Godwin ($6,400) is practicing in a limited fashion, giving him a chance to suit up after missing the last two weeks.

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DVP Matchups

This section will highlight the average DKFP allowed to each position. These numbers will now reflect the current 2020 season.

Worst QB Matchups

Team, Opponent, PTS/G Allowed, Rank

Cincinnati Bengals, Indianapolis Colts, 12.5, 1st
Carolina Panthers, Chicago Bears, 12.9, 2nd
Indianapolis Colts, Cincinnati Bengals, 14.9, 3rd

Best QB Matchups

Team, Opponent, PTS/G Allowed, Rank

Minnesota Vikings, Atlanta Falcons, 33.1, 32nd
Detroit Lions, Jacksonville Jaguars, 24.1, T-27th
Pittsburgh Steelers, Cleveland Browns, 23.5, 26th

Worst RB Matchups

Team, Opponent, PTS/G Allowed, Rank

Cincinnati Bengals, Indianapolis Colts, 17.1, 1st
Cleveland Browns, Pittsburgh Steelers, 18, 2nd
New England Patriots, Denver Broncos, 18.1 T-3rd

Best RB Matchups

Team, Opponent, PTS/G Allowed, Rank

Chicago Bears, Carolina Panthers, 37.4, 32nd
Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Green Bay Packers, 35.3, 31st
Jacksonville Jaguars, Detroit Lions, 32.8, 29th

Worst WR Matchups

Team, Opponent, PTS/G Allowed, Rank

Carolina Panthers, Chicago Bears, 29.4, 2nd
New York Giants, Washington Football Team, 29.5, 3rd
Chicago Bears, Carolina Panthers, 32.4, 6th

Best WR Matchups

Team, Opponent, PTS/G Allowed, Rank

Pittsburgh Steelers, Cleveland Browns, 47.7 30th
New England Patriots, Denver Broncos, 45.6, T-28th
Atlanta Falcons, Minnesota Vikings, 45.6, T-28th

Worst TE Matchups

Team, Opponent, PTS/G Allowed, Rank

Cincinnati Bengals, Indianapolis Colts, 6.1, 1st
New York Jets, Miami Dolphins, 7.3, 2nd
Jacksonville Jaguars, Detroit Lions, 7.9, T-4th

Best TE Matchups

Team, Opponent, PTS/G Allowed, Rank

Minnesota Vikings, Atlanta Falcons, 21.5 31st
Baltimore Ravens, Philadelphia Eagles, 19.4, 29th
New York Giants, Washington Football Team, 18.8, 28th

Target Report

Week 5 Target Leaders

Week 17 Playoff Implications

Team Opponent Spread Over/Under Playoff Implication
Team Opponent Spread Over/Under Playoff Implication
Dalls Cowboys New York Giants DAL -3 45 Winner goes to playoffs if PHI beats WAS
Cleveland Browns Pittsburgh Steelers CLE -9 42 CLE W needed
Miami Dolphins Buffalo Bills BUF -3.5 43 MIA W needed
Baltimore Ravens Cincinnati Bengals BAL -12.5 44 BAL W needed
Arizona Cardinals LA Rams ARI -3.5 40.5 Winner goes to playoffs
Jacksonville Jaguars Indianapolis Colts IND -14 49.5 IND W needed
Tennesse Titans Houston Texans TEN -7.5 56 TEN W to clinch AFC South
Green Bay Packers Chicago Bears GB -5.5 51 GB W locks No.1 Seed & Bye
New Orleans Saints Carolina Panthers NO -6.5 47.5 NO shot at No.1 Seed
Seattle Seahawks San Francisco 49ers SEA -6.5 46 SEA shot at No.1 Seed

DraftKings Lineup Starters

Quarterback to build around

Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions vs. Jacksonville Jaguars, $6,300 — This slate presents a number of options at the quarterback position you can pay up for and those are perfectly fine. I’m really digging using Stafford this week against a very poor Jaguars secondary. Stafford has endured a really tough schedule thus far and is still averaging 254 passing yards and eight touchdowns thrown through four games. His adjusted completion percentage of 71.7% with a clean pocket is one of the worst in the league, but we also have to consider his matchups. With the Jaguars not applying much pressure against opposing QBs, this could set up to be a really strong spot for Stafford on the cheap. The Jags have allowed an average of 284 passing yards, a 75% completion percentage and 26 DKFP to the QB position, all of which are among the highest in the league.

Wide Receiver To Pair Him With

Kenny Golladay, Detroit Lions vs. Jacksonville Jaguars, $6,200 — This is such an affordable stack that it’s hard not to want to play these two together. Since Golladay returned in Week 3, he’s drawn 15 targets, which he turned into 10 receptions for 119 yards, two touchdowns and an average of 17 DKFP. Golladay also has one of the more appealing matchups in coverage against CB Chris Claybrooks. He’s been targeted against 13 times and has allowed 10 receptions for 170 yards and two touchdowns scored. Claybrooks was roasted by Bradin Cooks last week, as he made three catches for 100 yards.

Top Running Back To Consider

Derrick Henry, Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans, $7,300 — If it wasn’t for the two touchdowns scored, Henry would have been a disaster against the Bills, rushing the ball 19 times for only 57 yards. I don’t think he’s going to have much trouble against the Texans in Week 6, who have allowed opposing teams to rush for at least 149 yards in four of the five games they’ve played. Aside from last week, Henry was averaging 106 rushing yards and 27.3 carries per game. This is a really strong bounce-back start (at least for Henry’s standards) and may not draw as much attention as you’d think, as Alexander Mattison ($7,200) is only $100 less.

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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is steveazors) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.

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