This article originally appeared on Lucky Trader: DraftKings Reignmakers | Week 4 Market Report
Welcome to Week 4 of the NFL season, which happens to be one of the most significant weeks in the Reignmakers NFL season so far. There are two $100K first-place prizes up for grabs, making it a crucial week for those looking to make significant gains.
This article will focus on the strategy of capitalizing on market overreactions, which can generate yield irrespective of on-field results. While player performance certainly matters, the increasing card supply, particularly in the ELITE and above tiers, has led to falling prices. However, it’s anticipated that we will soon witness price floors being established for these cards in the coming weeks.
For those new to this article, our focus is on identifying the most significant percentage increases and decreases in value for the three primary skill positions over the past week. Our goal is to highlight potential buy-low and sell-high candidates.
Find the good and the bad for quarterbacks in Week 4 below.
There isn’t a lot to talk about in the QB market this week, with the biggest movers being backups that could take over soon...and Jameis Winston, who is expected to start for the injured Derek Carr this week. As is typical with these situations, the QB comes off of the floor value of ~$70, and prices typically jump 150-200%, where Winston is now. Other QBs seeing increases include Brian Hoyer, Jalen Hurts, Anthony Richardson, Jared Goff and C.J. Stroud.
Following Aaron Rodgers’ injury, it was expected that Zach Wilson’s prices would increase, but that bump didn’t last long. Currently, his ELITE prices have plummeted to around $120, with a floor of $105. His struggles on the field have made him one of the cheapest starting quarterbacks available.
Additionally, other quarterbacks like Sam Howell, Justin Fields, Kenny Pickett, and Deshaun Watson have seen their prices drop by about 30% over the last seven days.
Find the good and bad about this week’s running backs below.
De’Von Achane had an outstanding week that sent his prices soaring, with an increase of more than 130% on average to a floor of $270.
Zack Moss also continued his upward trajectory, with prices up about 40% on average. Reports from Indianapolis suggest that Jonathan Taylor may not return anytime soon, which has likely contributed to Moss’ rise.
D’Andre Swift has also seen his prices increase as he continued to perform well in the last two games. Other running backs experiencing price increases over the last week include Roschon Johnson, Josh Jacobs, and Raheem Mostert.
Firstly, Joshua Kelley has struggled to make an impact on the field, which has limited his card’s upside and led to a decrease in its price. Secondly, AJ Dillon’s card price has fallen back to the floor level after a disappointing performance, coinciding with Aaron Jones’ return from injury.
Lastly, Jahmyr Gibbs, despite being injury-free, has seen his card prices affected by his co-running back, David Montgomery, who scored three times in his return from a knee injury.
Overall, there have been roughly three players experiencing declines in price for every player who has seen a rise in price.
Now onto the wideouts...
Mike Williams’ season-ending injury has led to increased interest in Joshua Palmer and Quentin Johnston, with their card prices doubling and in Palmer’s case, potentially tripling. This suggests that the market anticipates one of them emerging as the go-to player in Williams’ absence.
Tank Dell has continued to prove himself as a viable fantasy option, resulting in a 50% increase in his card prices on average over the last seven days. Additionally, AJ Brown’s return to the main slate, following a few weeks in showdown formats, has caused an uptick in his card prices, particularly in the Play-Action set, which is crucial for qualifying for the RMWC ticket. This reveals an interesting strategy unfolding early in the season.
Davante Adams’ outstanding performance has generated more interest in his cards, leading to a 20% price increase over the last week. Meanwhile, Cooper Kupp, who is preparing to return from injury, and Tyler Lockett have also seen rises in their card prices.
Calvin Ridley stands out as the most notable decliner of the week, with his Play-Action card prices dropping by over 50%. This decline coincides with him being off the main slate for the next two weeks. Jahan Dotson has also experienced a significant drop in price, falling below $100 for his floor price, likely due to the Washington offense relying heavily on its rushing game.
Other players seeing price declines include CeeDee Lamb, George Pickens, Chris Olave, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba. As with the running back position, the increase in supply has led to declining prices overall. However, with only two more weeks of drops expected, supply should reach its inflection point in the next few weeks.
Keep an eye out for our upcoming slate breakdown, which will be released on Sunday morning. It will spotlight players we’re incorporating into our portfolios and highlight some Week 4 targets, with a focus on the $100K to first contests.
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