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What are the chances the Saints make the playoffs?

We discuss whether or not the New Orleans Saints will make the 2024 NFL Playoffs

Taysom Hill #7 of the New Orleans Saints celebrates a touchdown with teammates during the second quarter against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Raymond James Stadium on December 31, 2023 in Tampa, Florida. Photo by Julio Aguilar/Getty Images

The New Orleans Saints sprung a critical upset in Week 17 as they beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23-13. The Saints dominated the game but they still need help in Week 18 if they’re going to secure a playoff berth.

The Saints have to beat the Falcons and then need help from the Bucs to win the NFC South. They might have a shot at the wild card, but it would depend on help from the Seahawks and how the strength of victory tiebreaker works out between them.

Update — The Packers defeated the bears 17-9 in their Week 18 matchup and New Orleans has been eliminated from playoff contention.

Update — The Saints rolled the Falcons in Week 18 and improve to 9-8 on the season. The Saints will then need the Packers and Seahawks to lose in order to clinch a playoff berth. The Bucs defeated the Panthers to win the NFC South division.

New Orleans Saints current odds

DraftKings odds: To make the playoffs — Yes +250, No -320; NFC South +350
DVOA playoff odds: TBD
ESPN FPI: 22.8%
NY Times odds: 34%

Upcoming Schedule

Week 18: vs. Falcons

The Saints feel like the better team right now, but this feels like the kind of silly chaos that results in an upset loss.

Final record prediction: 8-9

Current NFC playoff standings

1. San Francisco 49ers, 12-4 — clinched NFC West
2. Dallas Cowboys, 11-5 — clinched playoff berth
3. Detroit Lions, 11-5 — clinched NFC North
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 8-8

5. Philadelphia Eagles, 11-5 — clinched playoff berth
6. Los Angeles Rams, 9-7 — clinched playoff berth
7. Seattle Seahawks, 8-7

8. New Orleans Saints, 8-8
9. Minnesota Vikings, 7-8
10. Green Bay Packers, 7-8
11. Chicago Bears, 7-9
12. Atlanta Falcons, 7-9
13. New York Giants, 5-11 — eliminated
14. Washington Commanders, 4-12 — eliminated
15. Arizona Cardinals, 4-12 — eliminated
16. Carolina Panthers, 2-13 — eliminated

Verdict

The Saints will come up short. Even if they beat the Falcons, I think they come up short with the Bucs and Seahawks likely securing the final two playoff berths.