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Should you bet Texans to make the playoffs after beating the Broncos?

We discuss whether or not you should bet on the Texans to make the AFC playoffs

Denver Broncos v Houston Texans Photo by Sam Hodde/Getty Images

The Houston Texans have turned things around since their three-win 2022 season, and now find themselves in a position to make the playoffs. With wins over the Jaguars, Steelers, and Bengals this season, Houston has set themselves up for success. After a win over the Broncos in Week 13, the Texans currently sit at 7-5 and could be in a position to win the AFC South or earn a Wild Card bid.

The Texans currently have +330 odds to win their division.

Upcoming Schedule

Week 14: @ Jets
Week 15: @ Titans
Week 16: vs Browns
Week 17: vs Titans
Week 18: @ Colts

The Texans lost wide receiver Tank Dell, who was having a massively impactful rookie year, to a leg injury. They struggled without him against the Broncos, but with more time and a solid game plan that works around his absence, the Texans should be able to go 3-2 or even 4-1 in these last five games. The Titans are not a huge threat to this team, and Houston brings an elite defense that should stop Tennessee’s one-dimensional offense.

The Browns, Colts, and Jets are all playing with backup quarterbacks. While it’s not impossible for Houston to lose these games, they will likely enter as favorites in most of them. They fell to the Colts earlier this season, but rookie Anthony Richardson was still starting in Indianapolis in that game.

The Browns have not looked particularly competitive over the last several weeks after injuries to Deshaun Watson and the quarterback crisis that followed. The Jets, similarly, have no idea who to start at QB right now and are flailing offensively.

Final record prediction: 10-7

All of these games are winnable for the Texans, but that doesn’t automatically mean that they will win all five. I think they go 3-2 in the upcoming stretch as they work around Dell’s absence. The Texans’ last six games have been decided by five points or less, and several of them could have fallen either way, which I think we will continue to see down the stretch.

AFC playoff standings following win over Broncos

  1. Miami Dolphins
  2. Baltimore Ravens
  3. Kansas City Chiefs
  4. Jacksonville Jaguars
  5. Pittsburgh Steelers
  6. Indianapolis Colts
  7. Cleveland Browns
  8. Houston Texans
  9. Denver Broncos
  10. Buffalo Bills
  11. Cincinnati Bengals
  12. Los Angeles Chargers
  13. Las Vegas Raiders
  14. New York Jets
  15. Tennessee Titans
  16. New England Patriots

At 7-5, the Texans are tied with the Steelers, Colts, and Browns in the Wild Card race. The Steelers recently lost their starting quarterback, which the Browns and Colts already went through earlier this season. The Browns don’t have a particularly challenging schedule going forward, but the Colts and Steelers will face more adversity as the season wraps up.

After Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence sustained a high ankle sprain in Week 13, the Texans have a shot to overtake them for the AFC South title.

Verdict

Yes.

The Texans have gotten lucky a few times this season, but they ultimately have a better shot than several of the teams that they are up against for a Wild Card bid. The Jags’ loss is their gain, and Houston will either grab the No. 4 seed as the AFC South winner or land somewhere in the 5-7 seed range.