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What are the chances the Raiders make the playoffs?

We discuss whether or not the Las Vegas Raiders will make the 2024 NFL Playoffs

Bilal Nichols #91 of the Las Vegas Raiders celebrates with teammates after returning a fumble for a touchdown during the second quarter against the Kansas City Chiefs at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium on December 25, 2023 in Kansas City, Missouri. Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images

The Las Vegas Raiders stunned the Chiefs on Christmas to keep their slim playoff hopes alive. Aidan O’Connell only threw for 62 yards, but the Raiders won 20-14 thanks to a pick-six and a fumble return for a touchdown.

The Raiders entered the game with a 1.7% chance at a playoff berth, per ESPN. They still have a lot of work to do, but they did what they needed to do in Week 16. They get a critical matchup in Week 17 against the Colts, but they need more than just a win over Indianapolis if they want a legit shot at a wild card berth.

Las Vegas Raiders current odds

DraftKings odds: To make the playoffs — Yes +1200, No -2500
DVOA playoff odds: TBD
ESPN FPI: 11%
NY Times odds: 14%

Upcoming Schedule

Week 17: @ Colts
Week 18: vs. Broncos

I’m skeptical they beat the Colts. When you’re winning games entirely because of running back turnovers for scores, that is not the most sustainable process. At best they’re splitting these final two games.

Final record prediction: 8-9

AFC playoff picture

1. Baltimore Ravens, 11-3 — clinched playoff berth
2. Miami Dolphins, 11-4 — clinched playoff berth
3. Kansas City Chiefs, 9-5
4. Jacksonville Jaguars, 8-7

5. Cleveland Browns, 10-5
6. Buffalo Bills, 9-6
7. Indianapolis Colts, 8-7

8. Houston Texans, 8-7
9. Pittsburgh Steelers, 8-7
10. Cincinnati Bengals, 8-7
11. Las Vegas Raiders, 7-8
12. Denver Broncos, 7-8

Verdict

The Raiders are going to come up short. Even if they win their final two games, they need a lot of help. The Steelers and Bills both have the head-to-head tiebreaker over them. They need the Steelers to lose their remaining two games, and then still need help from the Bengals and Texans. There are too many moving parts.