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What are the chances the Broncos make the playoffs?

We discuss whether or not the Denver Broncos will make the 2024 NFL Playoffs

Defensive tackle Christian Barmore #90 of the New England Patriots sacks Russell Wilson #3 of the Denver Broncos causing a fumble during the 3rd quarter of the game at Empower Field At Mile High on December 24, 2023 in Denver, Colorado. Photo by Dustin Bradford/Getty Images

The Denver Broncos remain mathematically alive in the NFL playoff picture, but their chances took a potentially fatal blow in Week 16. The Broncos struggled against a woeful Patriots squad and lost 26-23 on a last-second field goal. Denver was first on the board to take a 7-0 lead, but then gave up 23 unanswered points en route to the loss.

Denver remains in 11th place in the AFC standings, but they’re a full game back of four different teams tied for the final playoff berth.

Denver Broncos current odds

DraftKings odds: To make the playoffs — Yes +1600, No -10000
DVOA playoff odds: TBD
ESPN FPI: 4.0%
NY Times odds: 4%

Upcoming Schedule

Week 17: vs. Chargers
Week 18: @ Raiders

They should win both games. Both teams are playing out the string and are struggling. They each could eliminate Denver from playoff contention, so that offers some extra oomph, but both teams stink.

Final record prediction: 9-8

AFC playoff picture

1. Baltimore Ravens, 11-3 — clinched playoff berth
2. Miami Dolphins, 11-4 — clinched playoff berth
3. Kansas City Chiefs, 9-5
4. Jacksonville Jaguars, 8-7

5. Cleveland Browns, 10-5
6. Buffalo Bills, 9-6
7. Indianapolis Colts, 8-7

8. Houston Texans, 8-7
9. Pittsburgh Steelers, 8-7
10. Cincinnati Bengals, 8-7
11. Denver Broncos, 7-8
12. Las Vegas Raiders, 6-8

Verdict

They will not make the playoffs. They lost the head-to-head tiebreaker to Houston and the remaining teams are a notch ahead of them in the conference record tiebreaker. Even with two wins, it likely won’t be enough to overcome the four teams in front of them.