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What are the chances the Saints make the playoffs?

We discuss whether or not the New Orleans Saints will make the 2024 NFL Playoffs.

Keith Kirkwood #18 of the New Orleans Saints reacts with teammates after a touchdown during the first half of the game against the New York Giants at Caesars Superdome on December 17, 2023 in New Orleans, Louisiana. Photo by Chris Graythen/Getty Images

The New Orleans Saints put a halt to the Tommy DeVito hype train in Week 15, beating the New York Giants 24-6. It was a close game in the first half, but the Saints pulled away in the second half with 17 unanswered points to improve to 7-7.

The Saints remain tied with the Bucs in the NFC South, but the Falcons lost to the Panthers to drop a game back of those two squads. The Bucs beat the Saints earlier this year, which gives them the head-to-head tiebreaker until they meet again in Week 17.

New Orleans Saints current odds

DraftKings odds: To make the playoffs — Yes +100, No -130; NFC South +195
DVOA playoff odds: 45.1%
ESPN FPI: 48.5%
NY Times odds: 45%

Upcoming Schedule

Week 16: @ Rams
Week 17: @ Buccaneers
Week 18: vs. Falcons

The upside for the Saints is they theoretically control their own fate. If they win out, they’ll win the NFC South. They could also win two of their remaining three and clinch the division. At the very least, they have to beat the Bucs in Week 17 and likely have to beat the Falcons in Week 18 due to the division record tiebreaker with Tampa. They could upset the Rams next week, but a road game against a solid Rams squad seems an unlikely win. I think they lose to the Rams and split the final two games against the Bucs and Falcons.

Final record prediction: 8-9

Current NFC playoff standings

1. San Francisco 49ers, 11-3 — clinched playoff berth
2. Dallas Cowboys, 10-4 — clinched playoff berth
3. Detroit Lions, 10-4
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 7-7

5. Philadelphia Eagles, 10-4 — clinched playoff berth
6. Minnesota Vikings, 7-7
7. Los Angeles Rams, 7-7

8. Seattle Seahawks, 7-7
9. New Orleans Saints, 7-7
10. Atlanta Falcons, 6-8
11. Green Bay Packers, 6-8

Verdict

I’ll go with no. They have every chance to these final three weeks, but I don’t think they’re good enough to get the job done on the road against the Rams and Bucs. The Bucs have the easier schedule with two home games, one of which comes this week against a Jaguars team that might not even have Trevor Lawrence at quarterback due to a concussion. The wild card remains a possibility, but a loss to the Rams would all but foreclose that possibility due to head-to-head tiebreakers with them and the Vikings.