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What are the chances the Falcons make the playoffs?

We discuss whether or not the Atlanta Falcons will make the 2024 NFL Playoffs.

Xavier Woods #25 of the Carolina Panthers reacts after an interception off of Desmond Ridder #9 of the Atlanta Falcons during the second half of the game at Bank of America Stadium on December 17, 2023 in Charlotte, North Carolina. Photo by Jared C. Tilton/Getty Images

The Atlanta Falcons blew an important game in Week 15, losing 9-7 to the Carolina Panthers. The Falcons took a 7-0 lead and led 7-3 deep into the second half. They had two opportunities to potentially put this game away, but a fumble and an interception came back to bite them. The Panthers kicked a field goal as time expired to drop Atlanta to 6-8.

The Bucs and Saints both won on Sunday, which means the Falcons dropped to a game back in the NFC South. They have dropped into tenth place in the NFC, sitting a game back of the Vikings, Rams, and Saints in the wild card race.

Atlanta Falcons current odds

DraftKings odds: To make the playoffs — Yes +550, No -900; NFC South +750
DVOA playoff odds: 6.8%
ESPN FPI: 11.6%
NY Times odds: 8%

Upcoming Schedule

Week 16: vs. Colts
Week 17: @ Bears
Week 18: @ Saints

All three of these games are winnable, but the Falcons haven’t exactly impressed this season. I think they win at least one of these three games, but anything beyond that is a tough call. I’ll go with a win over the Bears and then a win over the Saints to potentially cost New Orleans a playoff berth.

Final record prediction: 8-9

Current NFC playoff standings

1. San Francisco 49ers, 11-3 — clinched playoff berth
2. Dallas Cowboys, 10-4 — clinched playoff berth
3. Detroit Lions, 10-4
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 7-7

5. Philadelphia Eagles, 10-4 — clinched playoff berth
6. Minnesota Vikings, 7-7
7. Los Angeles Rams, 7-7

8. Seattle Seahawks, 7-7
9. New Orleans Saints, 7-7
10. Atlanta Falcons, 6-8
11. Green Bay Packers, 6-8

Verdict

The Falcons will probably come up short, but 8-9 could be enough to get them the NFC South title. They split the season series with the Bucs and it will come down to divisional record or further down the tiebreaker list. Tampa is 3-1 against the NFC South while Atlanta is 3-2. I think the Bucs win the division, but it will be a fascinating close to the season in the NFC South.