clock menu more-arrow no yes mobile

Filed under:

What are the chances the Packers make the playoffs?

We discuss whether or not Green Bay will make the NFC playoffs.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers v Green Bay Packers
Head coach Matt LaFleur of the Green Bay Packers reacts during the fourth quarter against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Lambeau Field on December 17, 2023 in Green Bay, Wisconsin.
Photo by Patrick McDermott/Getty Images

The Green Bay Packers might need a few days to dissect their brutal 34-20 loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 15, allowing Baker Mayfield to dominate them at Lambeau Field and post a perfect passer rating. The Packers struggled defensively for most of the game, failing to make tackles in the open field too many times despite sacking Mayfield on five occasions. Green Bay also abandoned the run early, giving Aaron Jones just five carries after having him take eight carries on the opening drive.

Despite the loss, the Packers are still in a decent spot when it comes to qualifying for the playoffs. Here’s a look at their chances to get to the postseason.

Packers current odds

DraftKings odds: To make the playoffs — Yes +250, No -320
DVOA playoff odds: 18.5%
ESPN FPI: 25.1%
NY Times odds: 25%

Upcoming Schedule

Week 16: @ Panthers
Week 17: @ Vikings
Week 18: vs. Bears

The Packers have not made predicting games easy. They defeated the Lions, Chargers and Chiefs in a three-game stretch to put them in prime position to make a run. Then, they lost to the Giants and Bucs largely due to a massive decline in production from the defense.

The Packers should be able to beat Carolina, and the game against Minnesota will likely determine which team qualifies for the playoffs. Green Bay should also be able to beat Chicago, who might be tanking in the final game for draft positioning after taking a huge hit in the playoff picture with a loss to the Browns.

Final record prediction: 9-8

Current NFC playoff standings

1. San Francisco 49ers, 11-3 — clinched playoff berth
2. Dallas Cowboys, 10-4 — clinched playoff berth
3. Detroit Lions, 10-4
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 7-7

5. Philadelphia Eagles, 10-4 — clinched playoff berth
6. Minnesota Vikings, 7-7
7. Los Angeles Rams, 7-7

8. Seattle Seahawks, 7-7
9. New Orleans Saints, 7-7
10. Atlanta Falcons, 6-8
11. Green Bay Packers, 6-8

The Seahawks play on Monday night against the Eagles and if they win, they’ll also get to seven wins to jump ahead of the Packers. The Atlanta Falcons are also ahead of Green Bay thanks to the head-to-head victory in Week 2.

Verdict

Using ESPN’s Playoff Machine simulation, the Packers get the No. 6 seed if they win out in my first projection. This also has Seattle beating Philadelphia. If the Eagles beat the Seahawks and the Packers win out, Green Bay is still the No. 6 seed.

If I flip the result of the Vikings-Packers game, Minnesota takes the No. 7 seed and the Rams move up to the No. 6 spot. Basically, the Packers have eliminated all their margin for error over the last two weeks losing two games they probably should’ve won. They’ve still got a good shot at the playoffs if they win out but now they must do that to truly control their own destiny.