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What are the chances the Saints make the playoffs?

We discuss whether or not the New Orleans Saints will make the NFC playoffs.

Frankie Luvu #49 of the Carolina Panthers sacks Derek Carr #4 of the New Orleans Saints during the first quarter of a game at Bank of America Stadium on September 18, 2023 in Charlotte, North Carolina. Photo by Jared C. Tilton/Getty Images

The Saints come out of Week 14 in a tie for first place in the NFC South. They beat the Panthers while the Bucs beat the Falcons, which has set up a three-way tie for first in the division. The Saints, Bucs, and Falcons are all 6-7 with Tampa holding the tiebreaker edge and Atlanta holding the edge on New Orleans due to their Week 12 win.

New Orleans has lost once each to Atlanta and Tampa Bay and faces them in the final two weeks of the season. There’s a chance we get a pair of .500 teams facing off in New Orleans on Sunday Night Football in Week 17 with the NFC South title on the line.

New Orleans Saints current odds

DraftKings odds: NFC South +200
DVOA playoff odds: TBD
ESPN FPI: 39.3%
NY Times odds: 32%

Upcoming Schedule

Week 15: vs. New York Giants
Week 16: @ Los Angeles Rams
Week 17: @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Week 18: vs. Atlanta Falcons

The Saints face four teams right around them in the standings to close out the season. The Giants have unexpectedly turned into a challenge with three straight wins. If the Saints lose to the Giants, they’ll need a lot of help the rest of the way. If they beat the Giants, they theoretically have some control over their playoff fate. I don’t think they beat the Giants.

Final record prediction: 7-10

Current NFC playoff standings

  1. 49ers, 10-3
  2. Cowboys, 10-3
  3. Lions, 9-4
  4. Buccaneers, 6-7
  5. Eagles, 10-3
  6. Vikings, 7-6
  7. Packers, 6-7
  8. Rams, 6-7
  9. Seahawks, 6-7
  10. Falcons, 6-7
  11. Saints, 6-7
  12. Giants, 5-8
  13. Bears, 5-8

Verdict

I’m leaning no, but given the nature of their remaining opponents, it’s closer to a coin flip. I think they lose to the Giants, but they could just as easily beat them and get on enough of a roll. I’m not betting on it, but it’s not out of the realm of the possible.