Each year the Most Valuable Player of the league has plenty of room to argue for your particular pick. This year is the same, but one player is expected to win after running away with the All Pro voting.
As usual, quarterback is the most-likely position for an MVP nod. This season only Minnesota Vikings WR Justin Jefferson was the non-QB outlier. This pattern does make sense, as the NFL is a passing league and we see what happens to teams when they lose their quarterback versus losing another key offensive player.
For a non-QB to win now, it would need to be a convergence of a historic season for the non-QB and a down year for QBs in general. This season, Kansas City Chiefs’ Patrick Mahomes appears poised to win after receiving 50 of 52 votes for All Pro Qb, which are the same voters for MVP.
Most Valuable Player of the Year finalists
QB Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs
Mahomes easily had the best passing season out of all the finalists. His 5,250 yards passing was 775 yards ahead of Joe Burrow, while Mahomes’ 8.1 yards per attempt led the group and came in second overall to Tua Tagovailoa. His QBR and TD% also led the league. Mahomes also rushed for 358 yards and four touchdowns, the highest TD mark of his career. Overall, his 45 touchdowns led the league.
QB Jalen Hurts, Eagles
Hurts was neck and neck with Mahomes during the regular season for the MVP award, but a late season injury likely derailed his campaign. His statistics are great, on the ground alone, Hurts rushed for 730 yards and 13 touchdowns, while adding 3,701 yards passing, 22 TDs and just 6 interceptions through the air. The All Pro vote has keyed us in on who will likely win, but Hurts made a great case for himself, even with the three games missed.
QB Joe Burrow, Bengals
Burrow was on point all season, totaling 40 TDs while completing 68.3% of his passes for 4,475 yards, 35 TDs and 12 interceptions. Burrow did get off to a slowish start, which hurt his MVP campaign, but he turned it on and is playing at an MVP caliber level right now. If the Playoffs counted, he would still have a shot to move up the ranks with how he’s been slinging it.
QB Josh Allen, Bills
Allen appeared poised for an MVP run this season, but his elbow injury likely hurt his numbers, along with some key red-zone interceptions. Overall, he was second to Mahomes with 42 total touchdowns, as he was once again a productive rusher and touchdown scorer with his legs. But, of the four QBs on the list, he led in interceptions and had the lowest QB rating.
WR Justin Jefferson, Vikings
Jefferson had an MVP caliber season with 128 receptions for 1,809 yards and eight touchdowns. He was a force every week and could take over games. But, it’s going to take even more than that for a wide receiver to win MVP. Add in the 17 total games now and we’re likely going to need a record for yards or touchdowns or both.