Which NFL teams were hurt most by their schedule?

The 2021 NFL schedule can be picked apart in many different ways and some are useful while others are not. For this article I’ve put together some schedule stats that I find useful. And if you believe your team is getting the shaft, well, they just might be!

Net rest differential

Rest differential is how many days rest a team gets versus its opponents in each week across the season. This statistic has proven to show up in wins and losses with regularity. If your opponent is coming off a bye week and your team isn’t, that will factor into the result. Of course, if you’re the Chiefs and you’r playing the Lions, it likely won’t factor enough to give you a loss, but any edge in a close matchup makes a difference.

As you can see in the chart below, the Patriots are in last place with negative 15 days, per Football Perspective. That number directly correlates with the next column on the chart that shows New England faces three teams coming off their bye, the Jets, Chargers and Colts. No other team faces that many teams off the bye. Bill Belichick will have upgrades at many positions this season, but with the Dolphins and Bills playing better than ever before, he’ll have his work cut out for him this season.

The Chicago Bears are also high in negative rest differential with -14, as they face two teams coming off their bye, the 49ers and Steelers. And the Washington Football Team isn’t far behind, as they are at -13.5 depending on if they play Saturday or Sunday in Week 15. They also have nine road games versus their eight home games.

Strength of Schedule: Win totals

I’ve gone into more detail on this subject here, but when you combine a tough strength of schedule with some of these other factors, we can see some painful realities. The Pittsburgh Steelers are one of those teams, as they have the second-toughest schedule based on projected opponent win totals along with the fifth-worst rest differential. Thankfully for them, the one team they face coming off a bye is Detroit. And they have nine home games versus eight road games, which should be a positive for Ben Roethlisberger who plays better at home.

The Washington Football Team has the sixth-toughest strength of schedule along with the third-worst rest differential and nine road games. We’re going to need to see a lot of Fitzmagic to give Washington a chance to win the NFC East again this year. Thankfully for them, they