What reduced capacity could mean for Chiefs point spreads in 2020

The Kansas City Chiefs will open the 2020 NFL season with a home game against the Houston Texans, and the plan is to have some fans in attendance at Arrowhead Stadium. The team announced on Monday they, “have finalized plans for a reduced capacity of “approximately 22 percent to kick off the 2020 season.”

Arrowhead Stadium holds 76,416 fans, which means 22 percent would be 16,811. The stadium won’t be nearly as loud as it normally is, but 16,811 is still a decent sized group of people during a pandemic.

The Chiefs are currently a 10-point favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook for their opener against the Texans. In sports betting, home field advantage is viewed as being worth roughly 2.5 to 3 points. Some teams like the Chiefs, Seahawks, and Saints have a more significant advantage than other teams, and might go upward of 3.5 points.

DK Sportsbook oddsmaker Johnny Avello said he would cut a home field in half with no fans in the stands, but we’re still sorting out what a partial attendance might mean. There is still benefit of knowing your home stadium and locker room, and not having to travel, so you still get some benefit to playing at home. But, it will not be nearly what it would be if there were a full contingent of fans in the stands.

The line will likely slip a little, but probably not more than 1.5 to 2 points. The Chiefs will remain at least a touchdown favorite, if not more. Plenty could still change before this game, but barring any significant injuries, look for the line to settle in the 8- to 9-point range.

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