clock menu more-arrow no yes mobile

Filed under:

Why the over/under could hit in Chiefs vs. Ravens AFC Championship game

We take a look at the point total for the AFC Championship and why the over or under could hit as the Chiefs face the Ravens.

Wide receiver Rashee Rice #4 of the Kansas City Chiefs carries the ball during the AFC Wild Card Playoff game against the Miami Dolphins at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium on January 13, 2024 in Kansas City, Missouri. Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images

The No. 3 Kansas City Chiefs will take on the No. 1 Baltimore Ravens in the 2024 AFC Championship Game. The winner of this game will represent the AFC in the Super Bowl on Sunday, February 11. It is expected to be a good game between the two best teams in the AFC, with all eyes on quarterbacks Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson. Let’s take a look at the odds of the game and see if you should be taking the over or the under on the point total.

The Ravens are 4-point favorites at DraftKings Sportsbooks. Baltimore is -198 on the moneyline, with Kansas City installed as the +164 underdog. The point total is set at 44.

Chiefs-Ravens: Over in AFC Championship

The Chiefs and Ravens are two of the best offenses in the league. This season, Baltimore has had the edge and scored 28.4 points per game — the fourth-most in the NFL this season. Kansas City had a down year offensively but still scored 21.8 points per game. Since Jackson and Mahomes have been in the league, these teams have played four times. The Chiefs have won three of the games, but the Ravens won the most recent matchup in 2021. The point totals for their four games finished at 51, 61, 54 and 71. The Ravens beat the Texans 34-10, and the Chiefs beat the Bills 27-24.

Chiefs Ravens: Under in AFC Championship

While the offenses help make the case for the over, the defenses would support the under. Kansas City and Baltimore had two of the best defenses in the NFL this season and allowed the fewest and second-fewest points per game. Combined, their defenses allowed 33.8 total points per game, with the Ravens giving up 16.5 and Kansas City 17.3. The weather report also doesn’t look great for a high point total. Rain is projected to fall throughout the afternoon on Sunday, which could keep the scoring low.

Pick

I know that Kansas City has its best defense in the Mahomes era, but I’m still leaning toward the over. Jackson is going to be playing with something to prove, and Mahomes in the playoffs has been hard to beat. The defenses will try their best, but with the recent outcomes between these teams and how they played in the playoffs so far, I’m taking the over.