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How the public is betting Lions vs. 49ers in the NFC Championship game

We break down the betting splits for Lions-49ers in the NFC Championship round of the 2024 NFL Playoffs.

Amon-Ra St. Brown #14 of the Detroit Lions warms up prior to an NFL divisional round playoff football game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Ford Field on January 21, 2024 in Detroit, Michigan. Photo by Kevin Sabitus/Getty Images

The Detroit Lions take on the San Francisco 49ers in the NFC Championship Game on Sunday evening at 6:30 p.m. ET on FOX. Despite having a bit of trouble getting by the No. 7 Green Bay Packers in the Divisional Round, the Niners are heavy favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook to win this game and advance to the Super Bowl. Below we’ll take a look at how the public is betting the game and what it can tell us about our own wagers.

All odds and info were provided by DraftKings Sportsbook.

Point Spread

49ers -7.5

This line still makes no sense to me. The Packers were around a 7-point underdog for most of the week leading up to their game. Green Bay’s defense was expected to be bad. The Packers had momentum and a QB playing well in Jordan Love. But really, if you put the Packers and Lions up against each other right now, Detroit would be favored by at least 3-4 points you’d think depending on location. So if that’s what should be the difference here, the Lions are being overlooked.

The splits tell us this, though. We’re seeing 70% of the bets and 53% of the handle on the Lions to cover 7.5 points. That makes a lot of sense. This game should be close and the Lions have, you would think, a better chance of winning than the Packers did. Getting Detroit at +7.5 feels like a gift.

Over/Under

52.5 points

This like is way too high. DKN Staff Writer Grace McDermott wrote earlier about the over/under and some trends really stand out. When the Lions played in a game with an over/under 50 or higher, the under hit in every game. On the season, however, the Lions hit the over more times than not with the Niners being around .500 in that department. This point total seems way too high and we’re not sure what Vegas is thinking here.

While it’s two good and efficient offense, the strong part of each offense is the run game, which never lends itself to high-scoring games usually. The two QBs aren’t good. We saw Brock Purdy sort of disappear last week and it led to the Packers being in position to win (they should have won). Jared Goff played well vs. the Bucs but the Niners defensive front should be much more difficult to navigate and Pro Bowl center Frank Ragnow is playing through an injury. Also, the Lions had one of the better run defenses in the NFL this season and stopping Christian McCaffrey should be at the top of their list of things to do today.

All in all, we’re seeing 60% of the handle and 58% of the bets on the over. But more money and bets are trending in the direction of the under as we write this. More of that should come in throughout the day and we could see the bets closer to a split.

My lean would be on the under.

Moneyline

SF -340, DET +270

Again, the Lions are being undervalued in this spot. It’s Detroit’s biggest game in the franchise’s history in over 30 years. It’s arguably the most important game for the Lions ever if we’re being honest. This is a very hungry group and we saw them take care of business at home last week. San Fran just skated by and I wonder if head coach Kyle Shanahan may slip up again like he did for the Falcons in that Super Bowl vs. the Patriots and in the Super Bowl vs. the Kansas City Chiefs not too long ago. I trust Goff a bit more than Purdy. 49ers WR Deebo Samuel may not be 100% and could be a non-factor. If the line were closer, this would be a different story.

Despite the lines and what Vegas thinks, I believe this game will be close. Backing the Lions makes the most sense overall or looking at how the game goes and grabbing San Fran at a better number. On the ML, we’re seeing 63% of the handle and 65% of the bets on the Lions. Last week, we saw plenty of money and bets on the Packers in a similar situation.