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How the public is betting Chiefs vs. Ravens in the AFC Championship game

We break down the betting splits for Chiefs-Ravens in the AFC Championship round of the 2024 NFL Playoffs.

Travis Kelce of the Kansas City Chiefs runs a route during an NFL divisional round playoff football game against the Buffalo Bills at Highmark Stadium on January 21, 2024 in Orchard Park, New York. Photo by Perry Knotts/Getty Images

The AFC Championship Game between the Baltimore Ravens and Kansas City Chiefs will kick off at 3 p.m. ET on Sunday afternoon. The Ravens have a chance to take down the defending champion Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes. Kansas City has a shot to advance to its fourth Super Bowl in the past five seasons. Below we’ll go over betting splits for the spread, over/under and moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook.

All odds and info were provided by DraftKings Sportsbook.

Point Spread

Ravens -4

There’s 51% of the bets and 63% of the handle on the Ravens to cover the spread. The bets are almost split but more money is going in on Baltimore to win by a touchdown essentially. Baltimore was among the best teams in the NFL against the spread in the 2023 regular season, and when the Ravens did so, it was usually by a lot of points. It’s an interesting case study.

We saw the Chiefs beat the Bills as underdogs on the road for the first time in the Mahomes Era. Going into Baltimore feels like a different animal but really its a similar situation for Kansas City. That’s likely why the bets are in almost a clean 50-50 split. So many believe that this game could come down to a field goal. It doesn’t feel like we’ll get a blowout one way or the other. In a close matchup, it makes sense that the public would be backing the defending champs and a team that’s advanced from the AFC Championship more times than not recently.

Over/Under

44.5 points

Most of the handle (75%) and bets (78%) are on the over to hit. It’s two elite QBs and offenses but also some pretty good defensive units. Each defense should allow points so we shouldn’t see a low scoring game. This total seems pretty low. We also know there’s going to be weather. Rain could impact the ability to tackle but also could limit the passing games. But both teams have a strength in the run game. There’s a scenario in this game where the Ravens build a lead and lean on the run game and Lamar Jackson. The Chiefs offense also looked better than it has all season last week vs. the Bills. The public lean makes sense given how low the total is. I don’t think the rain will limit offense and we should see a score similar to 27-24 or 31-27.

Moneyline

BAL -198, KC +164

There’s 64% of the handle on the Ravens ML and 53% of the bets on the Chiefs ML. It makes a lot of sense to back the Chiefs ML at this number. It’s Andy Reid. It’s Patrick Mahomes. This Chiefs team didn’t look great going into the playoffs and during the regular season. Through two playoff games, the Chiefs look like a different team. When you get down to this round with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line, things should shrink. The Ravens are getting a lot of credit for a home team that hasn’t been tested like this since around Christmas.

The public isn’t running to place a huge wager on the Chiefs ML but more people are sprinkling that because the odds should probably look closer to a toss up. Usually, we’d follow the money — which would indicate we should back the Ravens spread and ML. It’s the safe play and Baltimore is the better team on paper. That was the case for Buffalo and we saw how things worked out.

My feeling is this game will be close and the Ravens should pull off the victory. Oddly I still feel gravitated toward taking the Chiefs lines as opposed to Baltimore.