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Betting Lions-49ers against the spread in the 2024 NFL NFC Championship

We make a pick against the spread and break down Lions-49ers predictions for the NFC Championship game of the 2024 NFL Playoffs.

Head coach Dan Campbell of the Detroit Lions reacts on the sidelines after a play during the third quarter of an NFL divisional round playoff football game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Ford Field on January 21, 2024 in Detroit, Michigan. Photo by Kevin Sabitus/Getty Images

The San Francisco 49ers host the Detroit Lions on Sunday for the NFC Championship game. The 49ers are 7-point favorites over at DraftKings Sportsbook at the moment, which is a healthy number to be sure.

If you look at the DVOA, the 49ers are a good deal ahead of the Lions defensively, but not as far ahead offensively, as Ben Johnson has done a great job scheming the Lions offense this season. We know Kyle Shanahan’s specialty is the offense and I see these two teams fairly equal in that regard, especially with Deebo Samuel not 100%.

The 49ers have the better overall team to be sure. It isn’t a blowout when comparing each position, but there is an edge for the 49ers. Add in QB Jared Goff’s poor home/away game splits, and the seven point spread makes sense.

ATS Pick: 49ers

I’ve gone back and forth on this one. The 7 points feels like too much for a Lions team playing well and a 49ers team coming off a in, but not a great game overall. In the end I believe it comes down to the defense. The Lions strength is against the run and they will face one of the best in the business in McCaffrey. McCaffrey will win enough downs to be useful to the offense no matter how good the Lions defense plays. While Detroit’s pass defense is their weakness, which should allow Shanahan to scheme up positive plays for Purdy and company all day. The Lions won’t have as much wiggle room on offense. And with Goff’s TD to interception ratio at 52 TD-12 INT (4.58%) at home vs. 23 TD-15 INT (1.53%) on the road, I’m giving the 49ers the advantage.