The Baltimore Ravens host the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC Championship game on Sunday. It should be a great game, as two of the best defenses in the league take on two of the best quarterbacks in the league.
The Chiefs come into this game playing some of their best football, but will also get their toughest defensive matchup of the playoffs in Baltimore. And at this point, it sure looks like they will see rain during the game. Both the Ravens and Chiefs are better against the pass than the run and I expect both teams to work from run game formations until they are forced to pass in hurry up.
AFC Championship game: Best Chiefs player prop bets
Isiah Pacheco, OVER 13.5 rushing attempts (-145)
As I said in the intro, I think the Chiefs will at least start off with the run game as their go-to. Over the season, Pacheco has ran the ball 14 or more times in 11 games, including the last two playoff games. And over his last eight games, he’s hit the over seven times.
Patrick Mahomes, under 240.5 passing yards (-110)
Last week Mahomes had maybe his best game of the season, but still had just 215 yards passing. The Bills have a good secondary, but were also hurting defensively. This week the Ravens are healthier and have been one of the top pass defenses in the league. They’ve allowed the fifth-fewest passing yards and the fewest passing yards per attempt this season.
Mahomes and the Chiefs offense are using the run game much more in years past and I expect that to continue this week. On the season, Mahomes has thrown for 240 or fewer yards in eight games
Travis Kelce, under 61.5 receiving yards (+105)
Kelce is coming off two strong games in the playoffs, as he’s surpassed 70 yards receiving in both. And despite a “down” year for him, he’s still be one of the best tight ends in the league. But, I do believe he has looked like a star player in decline this season. Now he gets to face a Ravens top pass defense in the rain. The Bills and Dolphins had injuries at linebacker and safety, which made it much easier for Kelce to find room to roam in the first two playoff games. This week I expect the Ravens to spend a few extra resources to keep him from seeing easy targets, pushing the Chiefs weak receiver group to get more involved.