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Pick against the spread for Dolphins vs. Bills in Week 4 of 2023 NFL season

Pete Hernandez gives their pick against the spread for Dolphins vs. Bills in Week 4.

MIAMI GARDENS, FLORIDA - SEPTEMBER 24: Tua Tagovailoa #1 of the Miami Dolphins in action against the Denver Broncos at Hard Rock Stadium on September 24, 2023 in Miami Gardens, Florida. Photo by Carmen Mandato/Getty Images

Two AFC contenders go head-to-head in Week 4 as the Miami Dolphins (3-0) face the Buffalo Bills (2-0). Kickoff is set for 1 p.m. ET on Sunday, Oct. 1 from Highmark Stadium, and the game will air on CBS. These two AFC East rivals split the regular season series in 2022, while the Bills edged the Dolphins 34-31 in last year’s Wild Card matchup.

The Bills are 2.5-point favorites against the Dolphins, with all odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.

Dolphins vs. Bills, Week 4: Pick against the spread

It’s safe to say that the Dolphins are the league’s hottest team after a 70-20 drubbing of the Broncos in Week 3. Led by 203 rushing yards and four combined touchdowns from De’Von Achane, as well as four touchdowns from Raheem Moster, Miami currently boasts the league’s highest-scoring offense (43.3 PPG). It appears they will welcome Jaylen Waddle back into the fold this week, giving them another dynamic weapon to throw at Buffalo.

After a pedestrian loss to the Jets in Week 1, the Bills have looked like contenders once more over the last two weeks. With wins over the Raiders and Commanders, Buffalo has scored at a clip of 37.5 PPG while holding their opponents to just 6.5 PPG. Facing Miami’s high-octane offense will pose a different challenge, but Buffalo has won two of the last three against their division rival.

Miami is a perfect 3-0 against the spread, while the Bills are 2-1 respectively. Two of the Dolphins’ covers have come on the road, so it’s peculiar that the oddsmakers are leaning toward the Bills here. It’s keen to note that only a field goal separated these two teams when they last met, and that was with backup Skylar Thompson under center.

Take Miami’s high-octane offense to not only cover the spread here but potentially move to 4-0 with a win over their AFC East foe.

The Pick: Dolphins +2.5