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Pick against the spread for Bills vs. Chiefs in Week 14 of 2023 NFL season

Chinmay Vaidya gives his pick against the spread for Bills vs. Chiefs in Week 14.

Kansas City Chiefs v Green Bay Packers
Patrick Mahomes of the Kansas City Chiefs reacts in the second half against the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field on December 03, 2023 in Green Bay, Wisconsin.
Photo by Patrick McDermott/Getty Images

The Buffalo Bills (6-6) will meet the Kansas City Chiefs (8-4) in a matchup of two teams who believe they are Super Bowl contenders this season. The Bills and Chiefs have met four times in the last two seasons, with Buffalo winning both regular season meetings and Kansas City taking both playoff games.

Isiah Pacheco’s status is worth monitoring as the Chiefs' running back didn’t practice Wednesday or Thursday. Pacheco has effectively matched his rushing total from a year ago with five games left and has provided good balance for Kansas City.

The Chiefs are 1.5-point favorites according to DraftKings Sportsbook, with the total coming in at 49. Kansas City is -122 on the moneyline while Buffalo is +102.

Bills vs. Chiefs, Week 14: Pick against the spread

It felt like the Bills could be taken seriously after demolishing the Dolphins 48-20 to start October, but Buffalo has been bad since then. The Bills lost a game to the hapless Patriots and didn’t look great in a win over the Giants. Buffalo has dropped games to the Bengals, Broncos and Eagles in the last four weeks, and Josh Allen is turning the ball over at an insane rate. While the Bills are still in the playoff hunt, they’re going to need a lot of help and have yet to win a pressure game.

The Chiefs know all about pressure games, but even they haven’t looked great. Even though there were some controversial calls at the end of the loss last week against the Packers, the Chiefs looked lost offensively. Patrick Mahomes is struggling to connect with his outside receivers, and Travis Kelce has slowed down a bit in the last couple of games. Kansas City’s schedule is still extremely favorable for the team landing the No. 1 seed and coveted bye, but it starts in Week 14 against the Bills.

The Pick: Chiefs -1.5

Since Mahomes has been a full-time starter for the Chiefs, the team has won 78% of its home games entering this season. If we take Kansas City’s 4-2 record into account at home this year, that percentage goes to 76.6. This team has won a lot of games at home. The Bills haven’t been bad on the road by any means, but it’s hard to back them in this spot even after a bye week. Mahomes at Arrowhead in somewhat of a pressure spot makes me lean Chiefs every time.