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Pick against the spread for Saints vs. Rams in Week 16 of 2023 NFL season

Chet Gresham gives their pick against the spread for Saints vs. Rams in Week 16.

Matthew Stafford #9 of the Los Angeles Rams reacts to his touchdown pass during a 28-20 win over the Washington Commanders at SoFi Stadium on December 17, 2023 in Inglewood, California. Photo by Harry How/Getty Images

The 2023 NFL season has been a bit of a rollercoaster ride for the Rams and Saints as they get ready to face off on Thursday Night Football. But, the ride has taken both to a 7-7 record, with aspirations for the playoffs. The Rams currently have the last wild card spot while the Saints are on the outside looking in. This game is huge for both teams.

All odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

Saints vs. Rams, Week 16: Pick against the spread

The Rams are currently 4-point home favorites and they have a 8-5-1 record against the spread. The Saints have been much worse against the spread, going 4-9-1 on the season. So far this year, the Rams, when favored, are 4-1 at home with a 7.2 point margin of victory. The Saints have only played one road game as the underdog, and won that game 34-0 over the Patriots. Overall, they are 3-4 on the road this year.

The numbers tend to favor the Rams going into this game and when you look at the most important position, quarterback, the Rams have the advantage there as well. Matthew Stafford has been playing extremely well of late. In his last four games he’s thrown 1,060 yards, 12 touchdowns and one interception. That includes three touchdown games against the Browns and Ravens, two of the best defenses in the league. He’s also taken only five sacks in those four games and 25 on the season. Add in a healthy Kyren Williams, Cooper Kupp and Paku Nacua, and you have an offense rolling at the right time.

The Saints are led by Derek Carr, who had his first three touchdown game of the season last week against the Giants. The Saints will get Chris Olave back this week after missing one game with an ankle injury and WB/TE/RB Taysom Hill should be more involved after seemingly getting eased back in last week due to injuries. The Saints have had such an easy schedule this year that they have only been underdogs twice. They stomped the Patriots in that situation in Week 5 and lost to the Lions three weeks ago, unable to beat the spread.

The Pick: Rams -4

The Saints haven’t really played anyone other than the Lions, while the Rams have faced the 49ers, Eagles, Cowboys, and Ravens. They’ve lost those games, but they’ve shown up for those game and were in all of them except the game in Dallas. The Saints have a better defense, but the Rams offense is clicking and the Saints defense hasn’t faced many good offenses this season.