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Pick against the spread for Broncos vs. Texans in Week 13 of 2023 NFL season

Henry Palattella gives their pick against the spread for Broncos vs. Texans in Week 13.

Russell Wilson of the Denver Broncos plays the Houston Texans at Empower Field At Mile High on September 18, 2022 in Denver, Colorado. Photo by Matthew Stockman/Getty Images

While the Houston Texans (6-5) lost a must-win game to the Jaguars last week, they’ll be able to get a leg up in the postseason picture this week when they welcome the Denver Broncos (6-5) to NRG Stadium. If the playoffs started today, they’d be the first two teams out of the playoffs.

The Texans are 3.5-point favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook, while the total is set at 47.5.

Broncos vs. Texans, Week 13: Pick against the spread

The Broncos are in the midst of a five-game winning streak that’s changed the tenor of their season. The biggest story for the Broncos will be their ability to limit big plays, as C.J. Stroud and the Texans offense has the third-most passing yards per attempt in the NFL, and have scored at least three touchdowns in their last four games. The biggest change for the Broncos over their winning streak has been the play of quarterback Russell Wilson, who has thrown eight touchdown passes and zero interceptions during the Broncos’ five-game winning streak. The Texans are coming off a game where they allowed 364 yards passing to the Jaguars.

As mentioned above, the Texans have one of the best passing attacks in the NFL, as Stroud’s thrown for more than 3,200 yards and 19 touchdowns this season, and has thrown for at least 300 yards over the past four games. While the Broncos have one of the worst run defenses in the NFL, the Texans are only averaging 3.7 yards per carry, so it’ll be interesting to see how that carries over to this game.

The Pick: Broncos +3.5

This line opened at 2.5 before moving a point, which could be due in part to the Texans signing defensive Derek Barnett. I love the Broncos as underdogs here, which is due in large part to the fact that both of these teams love playing in close games. Four of the Texans' last five games have been decided by three points or less (with the fifth game being decided by five points). The Broncos have looked unbeatable over the past month, and I’m backing that trend to continue this weekend.