The schedule doesn’t get any easier for the struggling Washington Commanders in Week 13. Fresh off a thumping in Dallas, they’re at least back home, but the Miami Dolphins are visiting and expected to push Washington’s current losing streak to four games. The Commanders haven’t had much of a home-field advantage this season either, losing their last four at home.
Miami is favored by 9.5 points here. They’ve covered the spread in each of their last eight games against teams with losing records, and they’re 7-4 against the spread this season.
There could be a lot of points in this one—the over/under for this game is set at 50. The point total has gone over in each of the Commanders’ last three games. It’s no coincidence that they’ve given up an average of 35 points in that stretch. Still, with the point total set that high, it makes for some interesting player props this week.
The Commanders and Dolphins kickoff at 1 p.m. ET on Sunday. The game will be broadcast on FOX.
Dolphins vs. Commanders player prop bets
Tua Tagovailoa — Over 280.5 yards passing (-115)
After only throwing for 243 yards last week against the Jets, Tagovailoa gets an excellent bounce-back game against the Commanders, who have allowed 3,175 yards passing this year — the most in the NFL. Tagovailoa’s cleared this over in six games this season, while the Commanders have allowed 281+ passing yards in three of their last five games.
Sam Howell — Over 264.5 yards passing (-115)
I’m also expecting Howell to clear his passing over, as he leads the NFL in passing yards and has thrown for 300+ yards in four of his last five games. While the Dolphins are only allowing 6.2 yards per pass this season, I’m expecting the Commanders to be in a hole from the start, which should lead to Howell getting plenty of volume.
Brian Robinson Jr. — Under 39.5 yards rushing (-105)
While Robinson’s cleared this over in four of his last games, I’m expecting him to take a step back this week against Miami. One of the main reasons Robinson’s been able to clear this over recently has been the amount of carries he’s received (he’s had 15, 17, 18 and 10 carries in the games this over hit), and I’m expecting him finish with a single-digit carry total against a Dolphins team that has the sixth-best rushing defense in the NFL.