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Pick against the spread for Browns vs. Broncos in Week 12 of 2023 NFL season

Henry Palattella gives their pick against the spread for Browns vs. Broncos in Week 12.

Russell Wilson of the Denver Broncos passes against the Minnesota Vikings in the fourth quarter at Empower Field at Mile High on November 19, 2023 in Denver, Colorado. Photo by Dustin Bradford/Getty Images

The upstart Cleveland Browns (7-3) will look to keep pace in the AFC North divisional race on Sunday when they travel to the Mile High City to take on the Denver Broncos (5-5), who are in the process of working their way back into the playoff picture. Kickoff is set for 4:05 p.m. ET.

The Broncos are -1.5-point favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook, while the total is set at 36.

Browns vs. Broncos, Week 12: Pick against the spread

The Browns are starting rookie quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson for the second straight week after the rookie led the Browns to a 13-10 win over the Steelers last weekend. Thompson-Robinson, who threw for three interceptions in his NFL debut earlier this season, appears to be the team’s quarterback for the rest of the season after Deshuan Watson suffered a season-ending shoulder injury. The Browns' backbone is their defense, which has the top passing defense and the ninth-best rushing defense.

While the Broncos have the worst rushing defense in the NFL and a middle-of-the-pack passing defense, they’ve played better as a unit as of late but will be without starting safety Kareem Jackson, who was suspended four games by the NFL earlier this week for his hit on Vikings quarterback Josh Dobbs last week. Quarterback Russell Wilson has played better as the season has gone on, and is one of the biggest reasons for the Broncos' four-game winning streak. He tossed a game-winning touchdown pass to Courtland Sutton in their win over the Vikings — Sutton’s eighth touchdown catch of the season.

The Pick: Broncos -1.5

While the loss of Jackson will hurt, I have faith in the Broncos to cover at home. Wilson’s been playing like a more muted version of his prior self, while their defensive shortcomings won’t matter as much against a Browns team that’s starting third-stringers at quarterback and running back. I’m banking on this being a low-scoring game.