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Pick against the spread for Eagles vs. Chiefs in Week 11 of 2023 NFL season

Pete Hernandez gives their pick against the spread for Eagles vs. Chiefs in Week 11.

FRANKFURT AM MAIN, GERMANY - NOVEMBER 5: Justin Watson of Kansas City Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes of Kansas City Chiefs celebrate during the NFL match between Miami Dolphins and Kansas City Chiefs at Deutsche Bank Park on November 5, 2023 in Frankfurt am Main, Germany. Photo by Mario Hommes/DeFodi Images via Getty Images

Week 11 of the NFL season closes with a Super Bowl 57 rematch between the Philadelphia Eagles and the Kansas City Chiefs. Kickoff from Arrowhead Stadium is set for 8:15 p.m. ET on Monday Night Football, and the game will air on ABC and ESPN. Both teams are fresh off the bye week and sit atop their respective conference in the standings.

The Chiefs are 2.5-point favorites against the Eagles, with all odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.

Eagles vs. Chiefs, Week 11: Pick against the spread

The Eagles remain the lone one-loss team heading into Week 11, having beaten the Dallas Cowboys 28-23 to increase their winning streak to three games. Slowly but surely, Jalen Hurts and the Eagles' offense have found their rhythm as of late as they’re scoring at a clip of 28.0 PPG (3rd). Their 17th-ranked scoring defense is allowing 21.7 PPG to their opponents and will face an ample test against Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce on Monday night.

The Chiefs bounced back from a sluggish loss in Week 8 to beat the Miami Dolphins, 21-14 two weeks ago in Germany. Interestingly enough, their 13th-ranked scoring offense has not been the main factor in propelling the team to a 7-2 record. Rather, Kansas City boasts the league’s best scoring defense, having allowed just 15.9 PPG to their opponents this season. While the Eagles pose their biggest challenge yet, a tenacious front seven led by Chris Jones will provide an ample counter in this Super Bowl rematch.

The Eagles are 5-2-2 against the spread this season, while the Chiefs are 6-3 through nine games. Kansas City is 3-1 versus the spread at home, while Philadelphia is 3-1-1 on the road. As the numbers show, it’s a toss-up between two heavyweight contenders, but it could ultimately come down to who makes the key defensive stop when called upon.

Based on that x-factor, it’s tough to look past how Jones and the Chiefs’ defense continue to rattle opposing offenses. With a +13.8 average scoring margin at home, compared to +2.0 on the road, you can feel confident in Kansas City getting a win in this rematch and covering the spread on Monday night.

The Pick: Chiefs -2.5