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Pick against the spread for Buccaneers vs. 49ers in Week 11 of 2023 NFL season

Spencer Limbach gives his pick against the spread for Buccaneers vs. 49ers in Week 11.

NFL: NOV 12 Titans at Buccaneers Photo by Cliff Welch/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

The San Francisco 49ers (6-3) will play host to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-5) in Week 11 of the NFL season. Kickoff from Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, CA is scheduled for 4:05 p.m. ET while airing on FOX.

When looking at the lines at DraftKings Sportsbook, the 49ers step in as 12-point home favorites. Is that too steep? We’ll answer that question while breaking down our favorite pick against the spread below.

Buccaneers vs. 49ers, Week 11: Pick against the spread

The Buccaneers started the season with a surprise 3-1 record that was followed by regression in the form of four straight losses. However, Tampa was able to get off the schneid with a 20-6 win over the Tennessee Titans last Sunday. The defense played great while allowing only 42 rushing yards, and QB Baker Mayfield threw for 278 yards and two touchdowns with 143 of those yards and a score going to WR Mike Evans.

The 49ers looked unstoppable to begin the season, rattling off five straight wins with four of them by a margin of at least 18 points. However, San Francisco fell into a slump with three straight losses at the Cleveland Browns, Minnesota Vikings, and the Cincinnati Bengals respectively. Then, the 49ers turned things around after their bye week, manhandling the Jacksonville Jaguars 34-3 on the road last Sunday. San Francisco’s defense forced four turnovers and five sacks while QB Brock Purdy was nearly flawless while going 19-of-26 for 296 yards, three touchdowns, and no interceptions.

The 49ers looked great last week, but this line could be somewhat inflated because of that. The Buccaneers have a respectable defense that ranks 11th overall in DVOA this season, and they are especially solid against the run while ranking 7th in DVOA for that category. The Bucs also have the best red-zone defense in the league, allowing a touchdown in only 32.14% of opponents’ red-zone trips. This could be a somewhat low-scoring game with Tampa Bay hanging around and covering the spread.

The Pick: Buccaneers +12