According to DraftKings Sportsbook, the Falcons enter this game as 1.5-point favorites. The over/under is 41.5. Below, we’ll break down our pick against the spread for this Week 5 matchup.
Texans vs. Falcons, Week 5: Pick against the spread
The Falcons started the season with a pair of home victories over the Carolina Panthers and Green Bay Packers respectively. Then, things took a turn for the worse. Atlanta fell 20-6 at the Detroit Lions in Week 3 before succumbing to the Jacksonville Jaguars 23-7 in London last Sunday. Falcons QB Desmond Ridder was sacked 11 total times in those two losses, and Atlanta had four turnovers with only one touchdown scored in that span.
Meanwhile, the Texans are trending up with a pair of wins. Houston stumbled out of the gates with losses to the Baltimore Ravens and Indianapolis Colts to begin the season, but things turned around with a surprise 37-17 win at the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 3. The Texans backed that up with a dominant 30-6 home win over the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 4, and now they have plenty of momentum. Texans QB CJ Stroud ranks fourth in passing yards (1,212) while being one of three starters to not throw an interception this season.
The Falcons won their first two games because they were able to run the ball. They have to get back to that strategy at home if they want to snap this losing streak. Facing the Texans makes for a good spot to execute that game plan, as Houston gave up the most rushing yards last season. So far in 2023, the Texans have given up the ninth most yards per rushing attempt (4.4 YPC). Look for Atlanta to control this game, sustain drives, and pull out a home victory.