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Chet Gresham’s list of Week 7 straight-up picks with confidence levels

We make picks for all 12 NFL games with levels of confidence for Week 7.

Brock Purdy #13 of the San Francisco 49ers attempts a pass during the second quarter against the Cleveland Browns at Cleveland Browns Stadium on October 15, 2023 in Cleveland, Ohio. Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images

Welcome to Week 7 of the NFL season! We have one game under out belt, as the Jaguars beat the Saints 31-24. That leaves 12 games to go with six teams on bye this week. The two premier games look to be the Chargers at Chiefs in the late games, and the Dolphins at the Eagles on Sunday Night Football.

The highest game total is predictably in the Dolphins-Eagles game, as it is currently set at 51.5 points, while the biggest underdog/favorite is 8.5 points with the odds favoring the Bills over the Patriots.

Last week we saw the Commanders, Browns, Texans, Jets, and Giants beat the spread, with only the Giants not winning their matchup. It was a crazy week, as the Browns beat the 49ers and the Jets beat the Eagles to end both of their undefeated seasons. And the fact that the winning teams were lead by backup quarterbacks makes it even more startling.

We are looking at straight up picks here, which are of course easier to get correct than against the spread picks, but as you know from playing in survivor leagues, they aren’t all that easy!

My favorite picks this week are the Browns, Bills and 49ers. I could see the Browns having a bit of a hangover from their 49ers win, but Gardner Minshew and company are going to have trouble with this Browns defense and Deshaun Watson looks like he’ll be back.

Josh Allen absolutely owns Bill Belichick, as he’s 6-1 against his Patriots and has put up the highest QB rating against his defenses ever. Add in the fact that Mac Jones is incapable of navigating a collapsing pocket and I like the Bills to win easily. The 49ers look like they could have Deebo Samuel and Christian McCaffrey ready for this Monday night matchup, but even if they aren’t, the 49ers should be able to bounce back against a middling defense in Minnesota.

I like the Lions to “upset” the Ravens, but it wouldn’t be a huge upset, as the Lions have played better than the Ravens this season. I do believe Lamar Jackson and company should break out of their funk at any time, but the Lions defense has been playing well enough to go on the road and take one from the Ravens.

Did Jordan Love officially turn into a pumpkin last week? Well, yes, but he doesn’t have to stay one. But, there is no doubt he had an awful game against a middling Raiders defense. And now he goes to Denver as a road favorite? I’ll give Russell Wilson a shot this week.

Below, I pick each game’s winner, and then slot the picks based on confidence levels — high, medium, low, and no. A game with three asterisks (***) after it indicates a game where I’m picking the betting underdog to get the win.

High confidence

Browns over Colts
Bills over Patriots
49ers over Vikings

Medium confidence

Raiders over Bears
Commanders over Giants
Seahawks over Cardinals
Eagles over Dolphins

Low confidence

Lions over Ravens ***
Buccaneers over Falcons
Chiefs over Chargers
Broncos over Packers ***

No confidence

Steelers over Rams ***