After a head-scratching loss to the Arizona Cardinals last week, the Dallas Cowboys are back at home in Week 4 trying to get rid of that bad taste in their mouth. To do that, they’ll have to beat a New England Patriots team that’s been playing better than their 1-2 record would suggest.
What makes this matchup so interesting is that the Patriots have been a tough hurdle for some of the NFL’s most explosive offenses. They held the Eagles to just 25 points in the season opener, and followed that up by keeping the Dolphins to 24 a week later. Through three games, New England’s defense is allowing an average of just 19.7 points per game.
While Dallas is a six-point favorite, according to the DraftKings Sportsbook, the Patriots defense and the Cowboys’ sometimes confusing offense makes for some intriguing player prop bets this week.
Patriots vs. Cowboys player prop bets
Dak Prescott — UNDER 233.5 passing yards (-115)
Even though the Cowboys quarterback has thrown more than 250 passing yards in eight of his last nine home games, he’s only managed to top that number once this season as Dallas’ offense has been slightly underwhelming (Checks notes, sees Brian Schottenheimer is the offensive coordinator, nods knowingly).
The Patriots haven’t allowed more than 244 passing yards in a game this season. Look for Dallas to call a conservative game and lean on the run.
Mac Jones — OVER 214.5 passing yards (-115)
Flipping the script here, it’s important to note that the Patriots are underdogs, meaning they’re likely to find themselves having to throw the ball chasing points in the second half of this one. That explains why Jones has more than 231 passing yards the last four times the Patriots were underdogs in a game. He’s done it twice already this season, including a 313-yard effort against the Eagles in Week 1.
Ezekiel Elliott — OVER 27.5 rushing yards (-125)
Revenge games are overrated, so let’s ignore that aspect here and focus on Elliott’s increasing role with the Patriots offense. Last week, he carried the ball 16 times for 80 yards, outproducing Rhamondre Stevenson’s 59 yards on 19 carries.
The Patriots have no doubt noticed the Dallas defense’s soft spot against the run. They gave up 222 yards on the ground to the Cardinals last week and 108 to the Giants in the season opener. Look for them to press that weakness this week, while also giving the former Cowboy a chance to play it up in front of Dallas’ fans.