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How the public is betting the Dolphins vs. Bills in the AFC Wild Card round

We break down the betting splits for Dolphins-Bills in the AFC Wild Card round of the 2023 NFL Playoffs.

New England Patriots v Buffalo Bills Photo by Bryan Bennett/Getty Images

The No. 2 Buffalo Bills host the No. 7 Miami Dolphins in the Wild Card round on Sunday, January 15. Kickoff is set for 1:00 p.m. ET. The Dolphins will be without starting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, and the Bills enter the matchup as heavy favorites.

We take a look at what the betting public is thinking about this game. All odds and info were provided by DraftKings Sportsbook.

Point Spread

Bills -13.5: 88% of action, 80% of bets
Dolphins: +13.5: 12% of action, 20% of bets

Is the public right? The Bills are coming out of the regular season firing on all cylinders — offense, defense, special teams — while the Dolphins are short not only Tagovailoa but starting running back Raheem Mostert. With a third-string QB, Miami would be hard-pressed to travel north and cover this spread. The public seems confident in a Bills blowout, and with good reason.


Over 43.5: 65% of action, 68% of bets
Under 43.5: 35% of action. 32% of bets

Is the public right? The public has leaned even further into betting the over than they did earlier this week, and with expectations of a high-scoring Bills offense and a Miami offense with nothing to lose, this is a reasonable expectation even in Tua’s absence.


Bills -950: 87% of action, 91% of bets
Dolphins +650: 13% of action, 9% of bets

Is the public right? Those few taking the Dolphins will win big in the case of a miracle, but the public is right to hammer in Buffalo on the moneyline here.