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Full list of Week 1 straight-up picks with confidence levels

We make picks for all 16 NFL games with levels of confidence ahead of Week 1.

Quarterback Marcus Mariota #1 of the Atlanta Falcons rolls out during the 1st quarter of the preseason game against the New York Jets at MetLife Stadium on August 22, 2022 in East Rutherford, New Jersey. Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images

The 2022 NFL season is upon us as the Super Bowl champion Rams host the Bills on Thursday’s “Sunday Night Football” contest. It’s always odd how they refer to the Thursday opener as an SNF game given the NBC broadcast, but it’s not worth thinking too hard about.

The start of the season means we’re back with straight-up picks for Week 1 of the regular season. We pick each game’s winner, and then slot the picks based on confidence levels — high, medium, low, and no. A game with three asterisks (***) after it indicates a game where I’m picking the betting underdog to get the win. We’re a little light on outright upsets this week, so we’ll see how ugly my picks get.

High confidence

Colts over Texans
49ers over Bears
Bengals over Steelers
Titans over Giants
Broncos over Seahawks

Medium confidence

Ravens over Jets
Eagles over Lions
Commanders over Jaguars
Chargers over Raiders
Bucs over Cowboys

Low confidence

Bills over Rams
Panthers over Browns
Dolphins over Patriots
Vikings over Packers***

No confidence

Falcons over Saints***
Cardinals over Chiefs*** (switched this one from Chiefs over Cardinals at 4:20 p.m. ET on Thursday)

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