For me, identifying the value plays in DFS on DraftKings is more about identifying the game stacks. Higher scoring games means more fantasy points to go around, and the more points to go around the higher the chance of a under-owned, cheap player returning value.
For instance, any team who is playing the Washington Wizards will generally score a lot of points. The Wizards can’t play defense right now and the pace of some of their games is absolutely insane. So on a night like tonight, this puts the Charlotte Hornets in a particularly good spot, with a ton of players priced under $5K who should give us salary relief.
Let’s get into the top value options on DraftKings 10-game slate for tonight:
Malik Monk, CHA at WAS, $4,600 — Starting off with our main theme, Monk has displayed the type of ceiling we’re looking for in a value play. He can reach upwards of 40 fantasy points when given the minutes and when he’s being aggressive on offense. We should see that aggression tonight with Washington playing at the 6th-highest pace in the League.
Langston Galloway, DET at ATL, $4,500 — Galloway is turning into one of my favorite “Irrational Confidence” guys in the NBA. A few nights ago vs. the Hornets he drained seven 3-pointers and shot 11-of-16 from the field on his way to 32 points. Again, Galloway has a high ceiling (around the 40-DKFP range), so getting him at this price vs. a team like the Hawks stands out.
Joe Harris, BKN vs. SAC, $5,000 — We’ve highlighted two players so far and we’re going to make it a third in the high variance realm. Harris is another shooter who could pop or could bust, but his price is still low in my eyes given his role in the starting lineup and ability to drain 3’s. Sacramento is middle-of-the-pack in 3PT% allowed and I think this is an OK bounce-back spot for Harris.
Coby White, CHI vs. MIA, $4,900 — I’ve been waiting for Coby White’s price to come down so I can write about him for a few weeks now. The rookie guard is seeing plenty of minutes off the bench with Chicago running a four-guard rotation. Kris Dunn ($4,500) is also in consideration here, but he can’t score. White can certainly fill it up and has been more selective with his shots, which has increased his 3-point shooting percentage a bit lately.
Mile Bridges, CHA at WAS, $5,000 — Again, target the Hornets-Wizards game, especially with value plays. We saw a bunch of Spurs’ players return big value the other night in that shootout, so a similar game would boost a lot of Hornets. Bridges has at least 25 FPTS the past two games playing big minutes.
Kyle Kuzma, LAL at OKC, $4,300 — Kuz is back in the basement in terms of price after a few poor outings, but his minutes and usage remain consistent. He left early vs. the Thunder a few days ago with an eye abrasion, but he’s expected to play tonight. I think the injury coupled with the matchup have impacted his price again, so if he’s going to see 20+ minutes, I like his spot here.
Kelly Olynyk, MIA at CHI, $4,500 — It’s always wise to target big men against the Bulls, who are terrible on the glass. Chicago plays up in pace, which is also a boost for rebounding. Kelly O has returned value in back-to-back games against weak opponents, and is set up well to do so again tonight.
P.J. Tucker, HOU at LAC, $4,100 — Tucker’s price is down a bit and he could see more usage and minutes tonight vs. the Clippers. Danuel House Jr. is listed as questionable, but was previously deemed doubtful, so his chances of playing seem slim. Tucker will have his hands full with Kawhi Leonard and Paul George all night, but that’ll only mean his minutes should reach around 36-40. He’s another guy who has underperformed in fantasy, but has a higher ceiling than most.
Cody Zeller, CHA at WAS, $4,900 — Zeller has taken the back seat in the rotation with the Hornets running smaller lineups. This is a bit problematic, but it also has his price down below $5K for the first time since the season opener. This is the best matchup in fantasy basketball and reaching a double-double shouldn’t be difficult for Zeller, even if he doesn’t see a full workload.
Damian Jones, ATL vs. DET, $4,100 — Jones has been starting at center for the Hawks and doesn’t have much competition for minutes behind him. Like the Hornets, the Hawks do enjoy running smaller lineups, but I don’t think they can afford such a luxury against Andre Drummond and Blake Griffin. Jones will have to play more minutes and at 6’11”, he’s probably the only player for Atlanta who can try to match Drummond.