I’ve been absent for the start of NBA season, but am really excited to get back to my DraftKings Sportsbook NBA best bets article. Returning for this Thursday card that consists of just one-game is a bit dull, but might be the perfect day to return.
I’m passing on betting the game between the Mavericks and Pistons, so I can get ahead of the Friday betting card, and present you guys with some of my favorite trends of the NBA season thus far.
I usually wait about a month into the season to start betting trends on quarters and halves when the right spots present themselves, but went six weeks this time because of my parental leave. I started back up on them and wound up going 3-1 with plays on Twitter on Wednesday, so we’ll see if we can repeat some of that on the Friday card and move forward with another strong season.
Below are some of my favorite trends going in the NBA, some of which translate to a spot for Friday.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
The Celtics are putting up historic numbers right now, so overs in general are doing pretty well. But Boston is getting out to scorching starts in these games, particularly at home.
The C’s now average 66.8 points in the first half of their 12 home games, and have even taken it to another level during this five-game home stand — going for 70, 64, 72, 78 and 68 in the first half of those games. The 70 versus Dallas came against (at the time) the top scoring first-half defense in the NBA, and the 72 on Washington came against a team that had been yet to cash an over on the road all season.
Friday night will be the ultimate test against a Heat team the Celtics dropped 68 on just two nights earlier. Will adjustments be enough to hold the Boston offense down? I’ll be betting no.
The Grizzlies are 15-6 1Q ATS, but did hand me my lone loss on Wednesday in the NBA. Memphis got out to a nine-point lead, but lost the quarter by a point in Minnesota.
However, the Grizz have been even stronger at home in the opening frame, where they are a ridiculous 8-1 1Q ATS with an average lead of more than 6.5 points. The Grizzlies host the 76ers on Friday night (Philly is 12-10 1Q ATS and 6-4 1Q ATS on the road).
It took a Russell Westbrook triple at the horn, but the Lakers cashed me a first half winner at home on Wednesday over the Trail Blazers. The first half cover moved them to 10-2 1H ATS when playing at home this season.
The Lakers are in Milwaukee on Friday night, so I would’ve be targeting them for a while now that they’re heading out on a six-game road trip. First game back in Los Angeles is December 13 against the Celtics, so we’ll likely stash this one away for a bit.
The Kings cashed another one on Wednesday, falling into the perfect trend of not only being at home, but playing a team in the Pacers that has been a first half fade (more on them later).
Sacramento improved to 9-2 1H ATS at home this season, with an average lead of over 7.7 points per game. That’s pretty good margin for a middle of the pack team that is never favored by many points.
We may have another perfect match on Sunday, as the Kings host the Bulls. Chicago is just 2-9 1H ATS on the road this season, but Sacramento will be playing on a back-to-back, so we’ll need to make sure they aren’t resting any key players.
The Nuggets have gotten out to tremendous starts away from home this season, now 10-3 1Q ATS with an average lead of about 4.5 points per game. Denver travels to Atlanta on Friday, where the Hawks are a pedestrian 6-5 1Q ATS.
I mentioned the hot starts for the Lakers at home ... well picture the compete opposite when it comes to the first quarter on the road. The Lakers are now 1-7 1Q ATS this season, and outside of their lone cover (a 12-point lead in San Antonio), the Lakers have trailed by more than 5.7 points in their other seven failed covers in the first quarter. This team is about to go off on a six-game road trip, so we should have some plays here.
Home or away, quarter or half ... the Pacers have just gotten off to dreadful starts. Indy is now 4-16-1 1Q ATS and 6-15 1H ATS on the season, struggling against nearly any level of competition.
Funny thing is the Pacers have been a decent bet as dogs this season and are winning some games, so that tells us they are a good second half bet after fading them early.
These are such extreme numbers that I do expect them to regress some. So while I’m not fading the Pacers 1Q/1H every game, I do like fading them against teams in good spots to start strong.
Already mentioned the Bulls, but wanted to make sure to highlight them in their own section. Now 2-9 1H ATS on the road, Chicago averages a deficit of nearly 5.5 points in the first half in those 11 games (includes the two covers). The Bulls have two more games on this west coast trip — Friday at Golden State and Sunday in Sacramento. Both line up nicely for a fade.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.